天然与合成橡胶日评：天然橡胶震荡运行，合成橡胶震荡偏弱-20250730

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The market sentiment for natural rubber has weakened, and the tapping work is affected by weather fluctuations, which may cause the price of natural rubber to fluctuate. For synthetic rubber, the raw material cost has decreased and the inventory has accumulated, which may lead to a weakening price trend with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of relevant rubber types [1] Summary by Relevant Content Market Data Natural Rubber - On July 29, 2025, the closing price was 15010, down 55 from the previous day; the trading volume was 369834 hands, a decrease of 203402 hands; the open interest of the active futures contract was 198795 hands, a decrease of 6497 hands; the registered warrant volume was 181920, a decrease of 100; the basis was -135, a decrease of 145; the Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -125, unchanged; the Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread (spot and futures) was -200, a decrease of 25; the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was 125, an increase of 200; the near - term to continuous - first spread was -70, a decrease of 20; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was 25, an increase of 10; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was 35, unchanged [1] Synthetic Rubber - On July 29, 2025, the closing price was 11835, down 120 from the previous day; the trading volume was 104614 hands, a decrease of 46246 hands; the open interest of the active futures contract was 41136 hands, a decrease of 3967 hands; the registered warrant volume was 10190, a decrease of 50; the basis was -68.33, an increase of 3.34; the North China - East China butadiene rubber spread (spot and futures) was 0; the South China - East China butadiene rubber spread was -50, an increase of 50; the near - term to continuous - first spread was -30, an increase of 5; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was 30, an increase of 5; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was 25, unchanged [1] Supply Side - In the coming days, there will be precipitation in major producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. In domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan and other places, with less precipitation in Hainan. As of July 24, 2026, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 66.43%, up 3.21% from the previous week, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from the previous week. As of July 29, the daily after - tax profit of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion polymerization method was 30.97 yuan/ton, up 199.11 yuan/ton from the previous day, turning from negative to positive; the daily after - tax profit of China's SBS solution polymerization process was 486.73 yuan/ton, up 159.3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the after - tax profit of butadiene rubber solution condensation process was -610.62 yuan/ton, up 205.49 yuan/ton from the previous day. The operation of synthetic rubber - related product devices is stable [1] Inventory Natural Rubber - As of July 25, 2025, the total weekly warrant inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 210.81 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.11 thousand tons from the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 11.96 million tons, an increase of 0.50 million tons from the previous week; the bonded area inventory was 8.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous week [1] Synthetic Rubber - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12796 tons, an increase of 156 tons from the previous week; the weekly inventory of butadiene was 15.7 thousand tons, a decrease of 4.3 thousand tons from the previous week [1] Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period, and the major producing areas at home and abroad have fully started tapping. As of July 29, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Hat Yai market of Songkhla Province, Thailand was 5.5 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.2 Thai baht/kg from the previous day; the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 16660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction in crude oil is not obvious, the oil price volatility has returned to a shock, and the price of upstream raw material butadiene has decreased. As of July 29, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 9375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 212.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Demand Side - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.00%, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week; the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 75.5%, a decrease of 0.12% from the previous week. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217.7 thousand vehicles from the previous month; the sales volume of passenger cars was 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184.3 thousand vehicles from the previous month; the sales volume of trucks in June was 316 thousand vehicles, an increase of 24.5 thousand vehicles from the previous month, and the tire matching demand has increased [1]