甲醇日评：焦煤再度反弹，甲醇跟随-20250730

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak, with relatively high upstream coal - based profits, a slight decline in coastal MTO profits, and poor downstream profits inland that have room for repair. The methanol valuation is relatively high. The anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, and it's unlikely to significantly reduce supply. With high raw material inventories in downstream MTO enterprises, port inventory accumulation is likely, which will suppress the East China spot price. In the short term, policy expectations may fluctuate, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2520 yuan/ton on July 29, up 28 yuan or 1.12% from July 28; MA05 closed at 2455 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.07%; MA09 closed at 2434 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.25% [1] - Methanol spot prices: In太仓, it was 2407.50 yuan/ton on July 29, up 7.50 yuan or 0.31%; in Shandong, it was 2305 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.86%; in Guangdong, it was 2397.50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.21% [1] 2. Cost and Profit - Coal spot prices: Ordos Q5500 was 462.50 yuan/ton on July 29, up 7.50 yuan or 1.65%; Datong Q5500 was 532.50 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan or 0.47%; Yulin Q6000 was 542.50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.93% [1] - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit was 423 yuan/ton on July 29, up 3.70 yuan or 0.88%; natural gas - based methanol profit was - 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO profit was 292.40 yuan/ton on July 29, up 12.60 yuan or 4.50%; East China MTO profit was - 668.07 yuan/ton, down 46.50 yuan or - 7.48% [1] 3. Market Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2416 yuan/ton, closing at 2434 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 576181 lots and an open interest of 576028, showing a decrease in volume [1] - Overseas information: In a Middle - Eastern country, only one 1 - million - ton methanol plant is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at their existing loads. It is estimated that the loading speed in mid - to - late July will be higher than that in the early part of the month [1]