策略动态跟踪报告：“反内卷”政策部署和市场定价行至何处？

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy has been progressively implemented since July, with a clear framework established by the Central Financial Committee, focusing on regulating low-price disorderly competition and promoting product quality improvement [2][5][6] - The revised Price Law strengthens the determination to govern low-price competition, introducing specific clauses targeting unfair pricing behaviors such as price collusion and price discrimination [5][6] - The scope of the "anti-involution" policy is expanding from emerging manufacturing sectors like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles to traditional cyclical industries such as coal, cement, and steel, as well as consumer sectors like internet platforms, pharmaceuticals, and finance [6][7] Group 2 - The capital market has reacted positively to the "anti-involution" policy, with significant increases in both equity and commodity markets, particularly in cyclical sectors, driven by rising inflation expectations [2][13][16] - From July 1 to July 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.3%, with cyclical sectors such as steel, building materials, and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, reflecting a strong market response to the policy [13][16] - The commodity market showed even greater elasticity, with the Nanhua Commodity Index increasing by 6.2%, and specific commodities like polysilicon and coking coal seeing price increases of 58.0% and 46.8%, respectively [16][17] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve industry fundamentals and inflation expectations, creating more investment opportunities, particularly in traditional cyclical industries and emerging manufacturing sectors [19][20] - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment: traditional cyclical industries (coal, non-ferrous metals, building materials, steel) and emerging manufacturing sectors (photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, pharmaceuticals) [20][21] - The ongoing policy implementation and market reactions indicate a potential for sustained investment opportunities as the market consensus continues to solidify [19][20]