五矿期货农产品早报-20250731

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is oscillating slightly upwards due to a single - supply source. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors, and the price is expected to remain range - bound [3][5]. - The EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited palm oil supply in Southeast Asia have raised the annual operating center of the oil market. However, the significant year - on - year recovery of palm oil production in Southeast Asia still poses downward pressure [7]. - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. With the increase in import supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, the price is likely to continue to decline [11][12]. - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall. The ongoing Sino - US trade talks have not produced a specific agreement, and the cotton market is short - term bearish [14][15]. - The egg price is expected to remain stable, with individual regions possibly seeing a slight increase. The near - month contract is oscillating, and the post - festival contracts after 09 are recommended for short - selling after a rebound [18][19]. - The domestic pig price is expected to rise slightly. The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction, and the focus should be on the spread opportunities [21][22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - Market Situation: The North American weather restricts the upside of US soybeans, and Sino - US trade talks have not provided positive news for US soybean exports. However, due to low valuation, it is expected to oscillate within a range. The domestic soybean meal price increased slightly, with good trading volume and high pick - up levels [3]. - Trading Strategy: In the soybean meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end. For arbitrage, focus on widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [5]. Oil - Important Information: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil showed different trends in different periods in June, and the production increased in July. Brazil exported $19 billion worth of soybeans to China from January to June, accounting for 74.6% of its total soybean exports [7]. - Trading Strategy: The fundamentals support the oil price center. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter. However, due to factors such as high - level production expectations, the upside is limited [9]. Sugar - Key Information: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price remained stable. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to increase in the first half of July [11]. - Trading Strategy: Given the increase in import supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - Important Information: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall, and the basis strengthened. Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures was extended for 90 days [14]. - Trading Strategy: As the specific agreement has not been finalized and the downstream consumption is weak, the cotton market is short - term bearish [15]. Egg - Spot Information: The national egg price remained stable, with stable supply and good market circulation. It is expected to remain stable, with individual regions possibly seeing a slight increase [18]. - Trading Strategy: The near - month contract oscillates, and the post - festival contracts after 09 are recommended for short - selling after a rebound [19]. Pig - Spot Information: The domestic pig price remained stable with slight fluctuations in some areas. The reduction in the slaughter volume at the beginning of the month and the strong price - support sentiment among farmers are expected to drive the price up slightly [21]. - Trading Strategy: The market is trading on policy intervention in capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [22].