Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US economic data is strong, and Powell maintains a wait - and - see stance, causing the US dollar index to rise continuously and the global risk appetite to heat up. In China, the economy grew higher than expected in H1 2025, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. China has introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and a new round of Sino - US trade talks has extended the tariff truce period by 90 days, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - For assets, the stock index will run with a short - term upward bias, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds will experience a short - term high - level shock and correction, and cautious observation is advised; in the commodity sector, black products will have greater short - term fluctuations, with short - term cautious long positions; non - ferrous metals will have a short - term shock and correction, with short - term cautious observation; energy and chemicals will have a short - term shock and rebound, with cautious long positions; precious metals will have a short - term high - level shock, with cautious observation [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Macro: Overseas, the Fed keeps the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, and Powell avoids guiding on a September rate cut. The US Q2 economic growth is 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%, and the July ADP employment increased by 104,000, exceeding the expected 75,000. The strong US economic data and Powell's stance drive the US dollar index up. Domestically, China's H1 economic growth is higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed down. China has introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and Sino - US trade talks extended the tariff truce by 90 days [2]. - Stock Index: Driven by sectors such as film and television, oil and gas, and food and beverage, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade talks and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - Precious Metals: The precious metals market declined on Wednesday. As trade agreements are reached, market risk appetite recovers, and precious metals are under pressure. The Fed maintains the interest rate, and the ADP employment report is strong, weakening the safe - haven property of precious metals. In the short term, precious metals are under pressure, but the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains. Attention should be paid to the key support levels for long - term position allocation [4]. Black Metals - Steel: The spot steel market rebounded slightly on Wednesday, and the futures price rose and then fell. After major macro - events, the actual demand has not improved significantly. The supply will remain high, but production restrictions may suppress it. The steel market should be treated with a short - term shock - upward bias [5][6]. - Iron Ore: On Wednesday, the iron ore futures and spot prices declined. The iron - making production decreased slightly last week, and the demand growth is limited. If production restrictions are implemented in August - September, the iron - making production may decline. The supply increased slightly this week, and the port inventory increased slightly. The iron ore price will fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices diverged. The production enthusiasm in Inner Mongolia is high, and the production in the main producing areas of silicon iron is stable. The short - term price of ferroalloys is expected to be strong [7]. - Soda Ash: On Wednesday, the main soda ash contract was weak. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the demand is weak. Market concerns about capacity exit support the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed. After a disappointing meeting, the price corrected [8]. - Glass: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was weak. The supply pressure increases during the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate industry is weak, and the demand is poor. The profit increased slightly. The short - term price is supported by policies, but it corrected after a disappointing meeting [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The US plans to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements, which is sentimentally positive for copper prices. The copper concentrate spot TC has rebounded slightly, and Comex copper inventories are at a multi - year high [10]. - Aluminum: On Tuesday, the aluminum price fell slightly. Fundamentally, it is weak, with domestic and LME inventories increasing. The impact of relevant policies is limited, and the price increase is expected to be limited. Wait for the sentiment to cool down [10]. - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts. It is the off - season, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be strong but with limited upside [10]. - Tin: The supply is recovering, and the mine supply is expected to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. The short - term price will fluctuate, and the medium - term upside is limited [11]. - Lithium Carbonate: On Tuesday, the main lithium carbonate contract fell. The prices of lithium ore and lithium carbonate products decreased. Due to policy uncertainties, short - term observation is recommended, and wait for the price to stabilize [12]. - Industrial Silicon: On Tuesday, the main industrial silicon contract rose. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 is 9800 yuan/ton. The price fluctuated greatly, and short - term observation is recommended [13]. - Polysilicon: On Tuesday, the main polysilicon contract rose significantly. The prices of related products were stable. The production in July is expected to increase by about 10% month - on - month. There are many rumors in the market, and direct short - selling is risky [14]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Trump threatens to punish India for buying Russian oil, causing concerns about supply tightening. However, the increase in US crude oil inventories limits the price increase. The oil price will remain strong and fluctuate in the short term [15]. - Asphalt: The asphalt price has been stable recently. The support from the crude oil price has increased slightly. The factory inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand is average. The price will follow the crude oil price, but the upside is limited [15]. - PX: The tight supply of PX continues, but the external price has decreased. The high profit of PX may cause downstream negative feedback. The short - term price will fluctuate, and the upside is limited [16]. - PTA: The trading volume of PTA is weak. The inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the downstream inventory has decreased, but the profit has not increased. The processing fee is low, and the price is supported by the crude oil price. Wait for the August stocking rhythm to change [16][17]. - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol price has returned to a short - term range. The port inventory has decreased slightly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. The short - term price will fluctuate within a range [17]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber price decreased due to the weakening of the sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Wait for the August peak - season stocking [17]. - Methanol: The methanol price was supported by coal prices but was restricted by factors such as device restart and import increase. It is expected to return to a shock range, and conservative investors should observe [17]. - PP: Affected by multiple policies, the PP price is still supported to some extent. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate [18]. - LLDPE: The polyethylene futures price corrected. In the short term, it will be affected by policies. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the price is expected to decline [18]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The overnight CBOT November soybean contract fell. Argentina's soybean exports exceeded expectations, and the pre - sale of new - season US soybeans is slow, putting pressure on the price [19]. - Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal: The domestic soybean meal basis is split. The import volume in August - September is expected to be high, and the USDA report in August may be bearish. The cost expectation of soybean meal will weaken [20]. - Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil: The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has narrowed. The export of domestic soybean oil is expected to increase, but the domestic demand is weak. The rapeseed inventory is low, supporting the rapeseed oil price [21]. - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of US soybean oil, palm oil may weaken. The domestic palm oil inventory is accumulating, and the Malaysian palm oil production is increasing while the export is decreasing [21]. - Pigs: The pig price has fallen to a new low this year. In August, the supply may increase, and the price will be under pressure until late August. The futures price of some contracts is too high, and the basis is low, suitable for industrial selling hedging [22]. - Corn: The corn futures technical indicators are bearish, but there is no logical driver. The spot price is stable. There may be an oversold risk in the far - month contracts. The opening price of new - season corn is expected to be slightly optimistic [23].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250731
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-07-31 00:42