五矿期货早报有色金属-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's monetary policy is neutral to hawkish, but the US copper tariff falling short of expectations eases the pressure on copper prices. The tight supply of copper raw materials persists, and short - term supply disruptions have increased. It is expected that copper prices will gradually stabilize in the short term [1]. - The boost from Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting to market sentiment is limited. The aluminum price continues to fluctuate. The relatively low domestic aluminum ingot inventory supports the aluminum price, but the price rebound will be limited due to the off - season downstream and weak export demand [3]. - The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened. The price of lead - acid batteries has stopped falling and stabilized, and the downstream purchasing is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on smelters expands, both the single - side price and the spread may strengthen [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as the domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase, and inventories are rising. In the short term, there are uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate decision, and there are still structural risks in the overseas market [6]. - Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term. Due to the strengthened expectation of resuming production in Myanmar, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. - The short - term macro - atmosphere has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and demand is weak. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline, driving down the price center of the industrial chain [9]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, but there is high uncertainty due to capital games. Speculative funds are advised to wait and see cautiously [11][12]. - The over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14]. - Stainless steel mills have a firm short - term price - holding policy, but if terminal demand cannot absorb the increased supply, traders may cut prices to reduce inventory. Attention should be paid to the real recovery of terminal demand [16]. - The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Due to the large difference between futures and spot prices, the upward pressure on prices is expected to be large [18]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 0.74% to $9730/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78700 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the SHFE copper main contract is 78200 - 79800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9680 - 9920 dollars/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 9225 to 136850 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 20000 tons [1]. - Market: The domestic spot copper import was at a loss of about 300 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 980 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage remained low [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum rose slightly by 0.08% to $2608/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20615 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract is 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2580 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. - Inventory: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 0.6 million to 609000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 51000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.65 to 388500 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory in Foshan and Wuxi decreased by 0.2 to 87000 tons [3]. - Market: The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.4 to 460000 tons, and the spot in the East China market was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures [3]. Lead - Price: The SHFE lead index closed down 0.06% to 16892 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S remained flat at $2016/ton [4]. - Inventory: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 61900 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 64800 tons [4]. - Market: The price difference between refined and scrap lead was at par. The start - up rate of primary lead decreased slightly, and that of recycled lead increased from a low level [4]. Zinc - Price: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.11% to 22676 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S remained flat at $2806/ton [6]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 15200 tons, and domestic social inventory continued to increase to 103700 tons [6]. - Market: The import zinc concentrate TC index rose significantly. The concentration of long - positions in the LME zinc market is high, and there are still structural risks overseas [6]. Tin - Price: On July 30, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 267960 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The short - term expected operating range for domestic tin prices is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 96 to 7433 tons, and LME inventory increased by 90 to 1945 tons [7]. - Market: The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, but the smelting end is still under raw material pressure. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, while overseas demand is strong due to AI computing power [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The price of high - nickel iron remained stable, and the refined nickel spot trading was fair [9]. - Inventory: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text. - Market: The short - term macro - atmosphere has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and it is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was flat at 71832 yuan. The LC2509 contract closed at 70600 yuan, down 0.34%. The expected operating range for the LC2509 contract is 68600 - 73200 yuan/ton [11][12]. - Inventory: No relevant inventory data provided. - Market: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits for some lithium carbonate contracts. There is high uncertainty due to capital games [11]. Alumina - Price: On July 30, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.73% to 3314 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton [14]. - Inventory: Futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.24 to 0.66 million tons, still at a historical low [14]. - Market: The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12920 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi increased slightly [16]. - Inventory: Futures inventory decreased by 62 to 103234 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.54% to 1118600 tons [16]. - Market: Steel mills have a firm short - term price - holding policy, and the supply in August is expected to increase [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract rose 0.25% to 20070 yuan/ton [18]. - Inventory: Domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased slightly to 31000 tons [18]. - Market: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand, and the price is under upward pressure [18].