工业硅、多晶硅日评：或有回调-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices have resonated and rebounded, but considering the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure, the market may adjust, and long - position sentiment may fluctuate. The polysilicon market has also been rising since late June, with significant price fluctuations and emotional instability, so operations in both markets require caution [1] Summary by Category Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) rose 1.56% to 9,750 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price rose 0.99% to 10,250 yuan/ton. The futures main - contract closing price fell 0.70% to 9,285 yuan/ton [1] - Supply: As silicon prices rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest, power costs have decreased during the wet season, and enterprise operations are steadily increasing. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and supply will increase steadily [1] - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, but some silicon material plants plan to resume production in July, bringing some demand growth. An organic silicon plant has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, and organic silicon prices are rising. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and downstream low - level inventory - building willingness is insufficient [1] - Investment Strategy: After the previous macro - driven rally, the industrial silicon market may adjust, but long - position sentiment may fluctuate. Continued attention should be paid to silicon enterprise resumption dynamics [1] Polysilicon - Price Changes: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feed material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The futures main - contract closing price rose 7.68% to 54,705 yuan/ton [1] - Supply: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, but some new production capacity may be put into operation. After offsetting, production is expected to increase slightly, with July production approaching 110,000 tons [1] - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Although downstream silicon wafer prices have risen recently, the terminal market remains weak due to over - drawn demand in the first half of the year [1] - Investment Strategy: Since late June, the polysilicon market has been rising, and the market is volatile. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment evolution and warehouse receipt registration [1] Other Information - From August 1, 2025, trading limits for some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted. For non - futures company members or customers, the daily opening volume limits for certain contracts are set, with exceptions for hedging and market - making transactions [1]