宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue high - level volatile consolidation, and attention should be paid to the trend of finished steel products. The demand for iron ore has some resilience, which supports the ore price, but the supply of iron ore will increase while the demand is weakly stable. Under the situation of increasing supply and stable demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market will weaken [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The core logic is that market sentiment has weakened and the ore price is adjusting at a high level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production has weakened, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined but remains at a high level within the year. Steel mills' profitability is good, and the resilience of ore demand still exists, which supports the ore price. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased as expected on a monthly basis, but according to ship schedules, subsequent arrivals are unlikely to decrease. On the contrary, the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase, and they are expected to be active in shipping at high ore prices. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore production, the ore supply will increase again [2].