金信期货日刊-20250731

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Report" - Date: July 31, 2025 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The subsequent trend of soda ash futures is likely to be broadly volatile, with prices expected to fluctuate around the cost range in the medium to long term due to high supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels [3]. - The short - term trend of the A - share market is expected to be volatile at high levels [6]. - Gold is expected to resume its upward trend and move upwards in a volatile manner, despite recent adjustments [10][11]. - For iron ore, due to the improved macro - environment and high iron - water production, the industry is in a positive feedback repair state, but caution is needed due to large recent fluctuations [14][15]. - The glass market's fundamentals have not changed significantly, and its recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Caution is advised and waiting for stabilization is recommended [19][20]. - The Malaysian crude palm oil futures may benefit from the strong performance of Chicago soybean oil and Dalian edible oil futures, but weak exports may limit its upward momentum [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the soda ash industry added 2.4 million tons of new production capacity, and about 2.8 million tons are expected to be added in the second half. Despite a decline in production during the high - temperature maintenance season in July, overall supply remains high [3]. - Demand: Photovoltaic glass is in continuous loss, the daily melting volume in production is expected to continue to decline, the rigid demand for soda ash is weakening, and there is an excess in the heavy - soda balance [3]. - Inventory: Manufacturer inventories are at a historical high. Although there has been a slight decline, the overall pressure remains large [3]. A - Share Market - Market Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell, reaching a maximum of 3636 points, while other indices opened lower and continued to decline in a volatile manner [6]. - News: Sino - US will promote the scheduled extension of the US reciprocal tariffs, and Xi Jinping chaired and delivered an important speech on the current economic situation and the economic work in the second half of the year [6]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, leading to an adjustment in gold prices. However, the long - term outlook remains positive [11]. - Technical Analysis: The weekly - line adjustment is relatively sufficient, and there is a high probability of a resumption of the upward trend [10]. Iron Ore - Macro - environment: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and iron - water production remains high due to decent steel - mill profits. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state [15]. - Technical Analysis: The price rose and then fell today, with large recent fluctuations. Caution is needed, and it is advisable to protect profits and wait for a stabilization opportunity [14]. Glass - Supply: There has been no significant cold - repair situation due to major losses on the supply side, and factory inventories are gradually decreasing [20]. - Demand: The replenishment motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly [20]. - Technical Analysis: The price rose and then fell today. The recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Caution is advised, and waiting for stabilization is recommended [19]. Palm Oil - Positive Factors: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. The strong performance of Dalian edible oil futures will also help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [23]. - Negative Factors: Weak exports of Malaysian palm oil may limit the upward momentum of the market [23].