国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250731

Report Overview - Date: July 31, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Scope: Black series commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - Iron ore: Supported by macro - expectations, showing a moderately strong and volatile trend [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, experiencing wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Influenced by macro - sentiment, showing a moderately weak and volatile trend [2][10] - Coke and coking coal: After sentiment realization, undergoing wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16] - Thermal coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, stabilizing in a volatile manner [2][20] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][24] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures price closed at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan/ton (-1.13%). Imported ore prices decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton, while some domestic ore prices remained unchanged. The trend intensity is 0 [4]. - News: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze the current economic situation and plan the second - half economic work [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: RB2510 closed at 3,315 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.42%); HC2510 closed at 3,483 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.81%). Some spot prices increased, and there were changes in inventory and production data [6][8]. - News: The government will regulate enterprise disorderly competition and promote capacity management in key industries. There were also updates on price law amendments and steel production data [7][8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices declined, while some spot prices of ferrosilicon increased, and the price of manganese ore rose. The trend intensity for both is 0 [10]. - News: There were price increases in ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the market, changes in enterprise production rates in different regions, and updates on steel mills' procurement prices and manganese ore quotes [11][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: JM2509 closed at 1,117 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (-0.31%); J2509 closed at 1,676.5 yuan/ton, up 43.5 yuan/ton (2.66%). Some spot prices remained stable, while others changed slightly. The trend intensity for both is 0 [16]. - News: There were updates on port prices and member - position changes in the futures market [16][18]. Thermal Coal - Fundamentals: The ZC2508 contract had no trading yesterday. There were quotes for southern port and domestic origin coal, and no changes in member - position in the futures market. The trend intensity is 0 [21][22]. Logs - Fundamentals: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed varying degrees of decline or change. Spot prices of most log products remained stable. The trend intensity is 0 [25]. - News: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to plan the second - half economic work [27].