国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250731

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: Macro - expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: It experiences wide - range fluctuations, and the disturbances at the mine end have not materialized [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment has weakened [2][12] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,720 yuan, down 80 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract was 12,920 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 153,323 lots, an increase of 33,388 lots from the previous day, and the stainless - steel main contract was 153,403 lots, an increase of 14,642 lots from the previous day [4] - Macro and Industry News: Events include Canada's Ontario province potentially halting nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in Indonesia's mining quota policy, and production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks [4][5][6] - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 70,600 yuan, down 240 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 792,909 lots, an increase of 48,749 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 272,753 lots, a decrease of 27,867 lots from the previous day [9] - Macro and Industry News: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Greenbushes and Pilbara released their production and sales data and 2026 fiscal - year plans [9][10][11] - Trend Intensity: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,285 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 605,161 lots; the open interest was 242,677 lots, a decrease of 34,057 lots from the previous day. The closing price of the PS2509 contract was 54,705 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,900 yuan from the previous day [12] - Macro and Industry News: The US will partially cancel trade tariffs on certain small - scale solar equipment imported from China [13] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1 [14]