国新国证期货早报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 30, 2025, A - share major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index declined. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and weather conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. 3. Summaries by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to 3615.72 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77% to 11203.03 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.62% to 2367.68 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1844.3 billion yuan, an increase of 41.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index oscillated and closed at 4151.24, down 0.79 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 30, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1704.3, up 70.4. The coking coal weighted index maintained a narrow - range oscillation, closing at 1185.5 yuan, up 57.5 [2][3]. - Coke supply is stable with a slight increase as spot price hikes are implemented, improving coke enterprises' profitability and increasing their production enthusiasm. The demand side shows that although iron - water production decreased slightly month - on - month during the off - season, it remains at a high level. For coking coal, domestic supply has shrunk due to safety inspections in some coal - producing areas, while imports from Mongolia are active with increased customs clearance at the China - Mongolia border. The demand is supported by the improvement in coke enterprises' profits and the high - level iron - water production [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the increase in the sugarcane planting area of Guangxi Sugar Group and the uncertainty of Brazil's production report for the second half of July, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract fell sharply on July 30. After a large short - term decline, it oscillated and adjusted overnight. As of June, the new sugarcane planting area of Guangxi Sugar Group was 320,000 mu, with a total planting area of 2.15 million mu [4]. Rubber - Before the US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on August 1, the market sentiment was cautious. The Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed slightly lower on July 30 and continued to decline overnight, affected by the 3.5% year - on - year decrease in the European replacement tire market sales in the second quarter of 2025 and the month - on - month decline in China's pickup sales in June [4]. Soybean Meal - On July 30, CBOT soybean futures fell as the weather in the US Midwest was expected to be favorable for crops. The unexpectedly improved good - condition rate of US soybeans weakened the expectation of a soybean production decline. Brazil's soybean exports in July were expected to be 12.05 million tons, lower than the previous estimate. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated and closed higher on July 30. The abundant supply of imported soybeans led to large - scale oil - mill crushing, resulting in high soybean meal production and increased inventory. However, the extension of the China - US tariff truce agreement for 90 days supported the price. Future attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and soybean imports [5]. Live Pigs - On July 30, the live - pig futures price oscillated weakly. Recently, the slaughtering sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of live pigs was abundant. Meanwhile, due to high - temperature weather, the terminal consumption was weak, and the market for pork sales was sluggish. The overall live - pig market was in a state of loose supply and demand. Future attention should be paid to policy regulation, the slaughtering rhythm, and the weight of live pigs [6]. Palm Oil - On July 29, palm oil continued to oscillate with a slightly reduced amplitude. The main contract P2509 closed with a small positive line with long upper and lower shadows. The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on the tariff - quota method for palm oil trade. The zero - tariff policy is expected to increase the demand for palm oil in the food industry. Short - term attention should be paid to the specific zero - tariff quota [7]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper oscillated weakly. The macro - situation at home and abroad suppressed the copper price. The sharp month - on - month decline in US durable - goods orders, the unresolved EU - US tariff policy, and the upcoming third - round China - US tariff negotiations increased overseas risk - aversion sentiment. On the supply side, although there were issues such as the potential shutdown of the QB mine, the global mining - smelting contradiction was still intense, and the US copper import tariff might lead to potential oversupply. On the demand side, it was the off - season for terminal consumption, and the operating rates of domestic enameled - wire machines and copper - rod cable enterprises declined. The global copper inventory continued to rise, although the inventory in domestic exchanges decreased slightly to 73,000 tons. However, the low domestic inventory and policy expectations provided some support for the copper price [8]. Iron Ore - On July 30, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and closed down 0.44% at 789 yuan. The global iron - ore shipment increased month - on - month, the arrival volume continued to decline, and the port inventory increased slightly. Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained at a high level. Steel - mill profits were acceptable, and the iron - ore demand remained resilient. The short - term iron - ore price may oscillate at a high level [8]. Asphalt - On July 30, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and closed up 1% at 3650 yuan. The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August decreased compared to July, and the supply shrank. Affected by rainy weather, the demand recovery was slower than expected. The short - term price will fluctuate [9]. Logs - On July 30, the 2509 log contract opened at 835.5, with a minimum of 825, a maximum of 835.5, and closed at 825, with a reduction of 489 lots. The spot prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and macro - market sentiment [9]. Cotton - On the night of July 30, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,735 yuan/ton. On July 31, the minimum basis price of cotton in Xinjiang's designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 101 lots compared to the previous day [10]. Steel - On July 30, rb2510 closed at 3315 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3483 yuan/ton. The coking - coal spot market continued to be strong with a narrowing increase. With the rising cost, there was an expectation of a fifth - round price hike for coke, which strongly supported the steel price. Steel - mill profits recovered significantly, and there might be a slight incentive to increase production. In general, the steel market may see an increase in supply and demand, rising costs, and a favorable fundamental situation. However, the risk of price adjustments due to over - speculation of some varieties should be noted. The short - term steel price may oscillate strongly [10]. Alumina - On July 30, ao2509 closed at 3326 yuan/ton. The spot inventory continued to rise, and the pressure on warehouse receipts was expected to ease. In addition to short - term fundamental disturbances, the recent decline in the low - level warehouse receipts also promoted the increase in the alumina price. Short - term positive factors were concentrated, and the low absolute price contributed to the leading increase this week. The short - term market sentiment was still bullish. However, in the medium term, the oversupply situation was difficult to reverse, and the sustainability of the alumina price increase was questionable [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 30, al2509 closed at 20,625 yuan/ton. The decline of the aluminum price slowed down, and it maintained a range - bound oscillation. The trading in the aluminum market was light, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase, and the spot market was relatively abundant. It was the off - season for consumption, and downstream enterprises mainly had rigid demand with limited trading volume [11].