国泰君安期货所长早读-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting on July 30 made marginal adjustments to macro - economic policies. Policy is more neutral, emphasizing the implementation of previous supportive measures and long - term layout, with a focus on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, and industrial upgrading [6]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on July 30, but internal differences were prominent. Powell's hawkish remarks dampened the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing the dollar and Treasury yields to rise sharply, and the stock market and gold prices to fluctuate [9]. - Due to weak fundamentals and high downstream inventory, pulp is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, and reverse arbitrage operations can be considered [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metals - Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold: FOMC meeting released hawkish expectations, with a trend intensity of - 1. Gold prices such as Comex Gold 2510 and London Gold showed corresponding fluctuations [9][16][21]. - Silver: Prices fell from high levels, with a trend intensity of - 1. Comex Silver 2510 dropped by 3.15% [16][21]. - Base Metals - Copper: The U.S. copper import tariff was implemented, causing prices to be under pressure, with a trend intensity of 0. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products, and the price of New York copper tumbled 20% [23][25]. - Zinc: Prices fluctuated narrowly, with a trend intensity of - 1. The U.S. Q2 GDP growth was better than expected, and Trump threatened to impose tariffs on India [26][28]. - Lead: Inventory increased, and prices were under pressure, with a trend intensity of 0. The inventory of LME lead increased by 6025 tons [29][30]. - Tin: Prices fluctuated within a range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of SMM 1 tin ingots rose by 3500 yuan/ton [32][36]. - Aluminum and Related Products - Aluminum: Prices fluctuated slightly, with a trend intensity of 0. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 51.40 million tons [38][39]. - Alumina: Prices weakened, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of the Shanghai - bonded area premium remained unchanged [38][39]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: It followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0. The inventory of三地 increased by 291 tons [38][39]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determined the direction, and fundamentals limited the elasticity, with a trend intensity of 0. Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the U.S. [40][44]. - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominated the marginal trend, and the real - world situation needed to be improved, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of 304/2B - SS decreased by 50 [40][44]. - Lithium Carbonate: Prices fluctuated widely, and the impact at the mine end had not materialized, with a trend intensity of - 1. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price dropped by 211 yuan/ton [45][47]. Energy and Chemicals - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment weakened, with a trend intensity of - 1. The U.S. partially cancelled tariffs on certain small solar equipment imported from China [48][50]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock remained unchanged [48][50]. - Other Chemicals - Pulp: It was expected to fluctuate weakly, with a high attention index of ★★★★. The profit of the paper and paper products industry from January to June 2025 decreased by 21.4% year - on - year [10][11]. - Coal - related Products (Coke, Coking Coal, and Steam Coal) - Coke: Market sentiment was realized, and prices fluctuated widely. - Coking Coal: Market sentiment was realized, and prices fluctuated widely. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized in a fluctuating manner. - Petrochemical Products (PTA, MEG, etc.) - PTA: Cost provided support, and month - spread positive arbitrage was recommended. - MEG: The unilateral trend remained weak, and month - spread reverse arbitrage was recommended. Building Materials - Iron Ore: Supported by macro - economic expectations, prices fluctuated strongly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of imported ore such as PB (61.5%) decreased by 8 yuan/ton [51]. - Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Rebar: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated widely, with a trend intensity of 0. The output of rebar increased by 2.9 million tons in the week of July 24 [55][57]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated widely, with a trend intensity of 0. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 3.65 million tons in the week of July 24 [55][57]. - Silicon - based Alloys (Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon) - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of silicon ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 100 yuan/ton [59][62]. - Manganese Silicon: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block increased by 0.5 yuan/ton degree [59][62].