铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the market is influenced by the better - than - expected US economy, the hawkish stance of the FOMC, and tariff developments. The dollar index is approaching 100, US bond yields are rising, and the stock and commodity markets are experiencing adjustments [2]. - In the domestic market, after the Politburo meeting and the Sino - US negotiations did not exceed expectations, the market risk preference declined. The stock market style shifted to high - dividend stocks, the commodity market sentiment cooled, and the bond market rebounded [3]. - Different commodities have different price trends. Precious metals are under pressure, copper shows a mixed trend, aluminum is oscillating, and other commodities also present various price movements based on their respective fundamentals and macro - factors [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. The July statement downgraded the economic growth assessment, and Powell's hawkish remarks emphasized inflation control. The market reduced the expected number of rate cuts this year to 1 time, and the probability of a September rate cut dropped to 41%. The US Q2 GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rebounded to 3.0%, better than the expected 2.4%. Trump announced a series of tariff measures starting from August 1st, which affected market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: The July Politburo meeting continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", emphasizing the consolidation of the economic recovery momentum. The market risk preference declined, and the stock, commodity, and bond markets showed corresponding adjustments [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to correct. COMEX gold futures fell 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.90% to $37.175 per ounce. Powell's hawkish remarks and strong economic data led to a delay in the market's expectation of the first rate cut this year, putting pressure on the prices of gold and silver. Short - term precious metals are expected to remain weak [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - Trump's tariff on imported semi - finished copper and copper - intensive derivatives (excluding refined copper) caused the US copper price to plunge nearly 20%. The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged in July, and Powell remained cautious, slightly dampening market sentiment. In the industry, the second - stage pumping work at the Kamoa mine is progressing actively. It is expected that Shanghai copper will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The Fed maintained interest rates stable, and strong US economic data did not support rate - cut expectations. The domestic meeting indicated that macro - policies will maintain a growth - stabilizing orientation in the second half of the year. The aluminum market has no clear direction, and aluminum prices are expected to remain oscillating [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina spot market is structurally tight, with low delivery inventory. Supported by news of domestic delivery requirements and overseas supply disruptions, alumina is expected to maintain a relatively positive oscillating trend [10]. 3.6 Zinc - US economic data was strong, the Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the dollar strengthened. The fundamental situation of zinc remained weak, with an expected increase in refined zinc production in August and weak demand. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11]. 3.7 Lead - The reduction and resumption of production co - exist in primary and secondary lead smelters. The transportation of raw materials and products in Ningxia is affected. The supply tension has eased, and the terminal demand is differentiated. Lead prices are expected to remain oscillating in the short term [12][13]. 3.8 Tin - Strong US economic data and the Fed's unchanged interest rates led to a stronger dollar, putting pressure on tin prices. The tin market shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, with weak supply and demand in China. Tin prices are expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term, waiting for the guidance of the US July non - farm payroll data [14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The market sentiment of industrial silicon is firm. The supply is contracting, and the demand shows a mixed situation. The futures price is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Policy expectations dominate the price direction. Overseas lithium ore supply is stable and abundant, and the demand is stable. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [17][18]. 3.11 Nickel - Tariff disturbances continue, and the macro - level is still volatile. The shortage of nickel ore has eased, but the ore price has not significantly declined. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [19][20]. 3.12 Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks drive up oil prices, but the OPEC + may increase production in September, and the fundamentals may gradually become looser. Oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [21][22]. 3.13 Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - The Politburo meeting emphasized policy continuity and stability. The fundamentals are expected to maintain a weak production and sales pattern, and supply is expected to contract in mid - August. Steel futures prices are expected to oscillate [23]. 3.14 Iron Ore - The spot market trading is average, and the market sentiment is weakly stable. The port inventory has decreased this week, and the supply is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [24]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the Sino - US negotiation results may weaken the export demand for new - season US soybeans. The domestic soybean procurement is insufficient in the long - term, and the supply is loose in the short - term. Rapeseed meal rebounds strongly, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [25][26]. 3.16 Palm Oil - The US employment data is strong, and the dollar index rises. The import of rapeseed is expected to decline, and rapeseed oil inventory decreases, leading to a compensatory rebound. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [27].