Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-31 01:47Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market has policy support, and there are opportunities to go long on dips. The bond market is affected by the stock - commodity market, and the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term. The precious metals market is under pressure due to the hawkish stance of the Fed. Different metals in the non - ferrous metals market have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals. The black building materials market is affected by policies and demand, and prices may fluctuate. The energy and chemical market has various trends for different products based on supply - demand and cost factors. The agricultural products market also shows different trends for different products such as livestock, grains, and oils [2][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - News: The Politburo meeting emphasized the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the capital market. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits for some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. Ningde Times' net profit increased by 33.02% year - on - year. Zhongchuan Emergency will be under risk warning from August 1st [2] - Base Ratio: Different base ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [2] - Trading Logic: The policy's support for the capital market is confirmed, and there are opportunities to go long on dips [2] Treasury Bonds - Market Quotes: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [3] - News: The Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies. The Sino - US economic and trade talks agreed to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days [3] - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 3090 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1585 billion yuan [3] - Strategy: The interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, but the stock and commodity markets may suppress the bond market in the short - term [6] Precious Metals - Market Quotes: Both domestic and foreign gold and silver prices declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.38%, and the US dollar index was 99.82 [7] - Market Outlook: The hawkish stance of the Fed and the strong US economic data are negative factors for precious metals [7] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Quotes: LME copper fell 0.74%, and SHFE copper was affected. The inventory and basis changed [10] - Price Outlook: The pressure on copper prices is relieved, and the price is expected to stabilize in the short - term [10] Aluminum - Market Quotes: LME aluminum rose slightly, and SHFE aluminum was in a volatile state. The inventory and basis changed [11] - Price Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate due to the low inventory and weak demand [11] Zinc - Market Quotes: SHFE zinc index rose slightly. The inventory and basis changed [12] - Price Outlook: The long - term price is bearish, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's decision and market risks [12][13] Lead - Market Quotes: SHFE lead index fell slightly. The inventory and basis changed [14] - Price Outlook: The supply is tightening, and the price may strengthen if the smelter inspection expands [14] Nickel - Market Quotes: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. The prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and refined nickel changed [15] - Price Outlook: The price is expected to decline, and short positions can be held or shorted on rallies [15] Tin - Market Quotes: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. The inventory and price of upstream tin concentrate changed [16] - Price Outlook: The supply and demand are weak in the short - term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [16] Carbonate Lithium - Market Quotes: The spot index was flat, and the futures price fell. The trading limits were adjusted [18] - Price Outlook: The fundamentals are expected to improve, but there is high uncertainty, and speculators are advised to be cautious [18] Alumina - Market Quotes: The index rose, and the spot price and basis changed. The inventory increased slightly [19] - Price Outlook: The over - capacity pattern may remain, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [19] Stainless Steel - Market Quotes: The futures price was flat, and the spot price and basis changed. The inventory decreased [20] - Price Outlook: The price may be affected by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to terminal demand [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Quotes: The futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was flat. The inventory increased slightly [21] - Price Outlook: The price is under pressure due to the weak supply and demand in the off - season [21] Black Building Materials Steel - Market Quotes: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fell. The inventory and basis changed [23] - Price Outlook: The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and cost support [24] Iron Ore - Market Quotes: The futures price fell, and the spot price and basis changed [25] - Price Outlook: The short - term price may be adjusted, and risk control is needed [26] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price was flat. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [27] - Soda Ash: The spot price was stable. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Quotes: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot price and basis changed [29] - Price Outlook: The short - term price fluctuates greatly, and speculation is not recommended. The long - term fundamentals are bearish [30][31] Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The futures price fell. The spot price and basis changed [33] - Price Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate with high volatility, and waiting and watching are recommended [34] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Quotes: NR and RU prices fell. The supply concern decreased [37] - Price Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate downward, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [39] Crude Oil - Market Quotes: WTI and Brent crude oil rose, while INE crude oil fell. The inventory data changed [40] - Price Outlook: The price has upward momentum in the short - term but is limited by the off - season demand [41] Methanol - Market Quotes: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The basis changed [42] - Price Outlook: The supply may increase and demand may weaken, and waiting and watching are recommended [42] Urea - Market Quotes: The futures price fell, and the spot price was flat. The basis changed [43] - Price Outlook: The supply and demand are weak, and long positions can be considered on dips [43] Styrene - Market Quotes: The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis strengthened [44] - Price Outlook: The price may rise with the cost after the inventory is reduced [44] PVC - Market Quotes: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [46] - Price Outlook: The supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price may fall back [46] Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [47] - Price Outlook: The fundamentals may turn weak, and the price may decline [47] PTA - Market Quotes: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [48] - Price Outlook: The supply may increase and inventory may accumulate, and long positions can be considered on dips [50] p - Xylene - Market Quotes: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [51] - Price Outlook: The price may go down with inventory, and long positions can be considered on dips [51] Polyethylene PE - Market Quotes: The futures price rose [52] - Price Outlook: The price may be affected by cost and supply, and short positions can be held [52] Polypropylene PP - Market Quotes: The futures price fell [53] - Price Outlook: The price may follow the crude oil trend in July [53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Quotes: The pig price was stable with local fluctuations [57] - Price Outlook: The price may rise slightly today. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [57] Eggs - Market Quotes: The egg price was stable [58] - Price Outlook: The short - term price may oscillate, and short positions can be considered after the rebound [58] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Quotes: The US soybean price fell, and the domestic soybean meal price rose slightly [59] - Price Outlook: The soybean import cost may be affected by trade relations, and long positions can be considered on dips [60][61] Oils - Market Quotes: The domestic palm oil oscillated, and the net long positions of three major oils changed [62] - Price Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate, and there may be an upward trend in the fourth quarter [63] Sugar - Market Quotes: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell [64] - Price Outlook: The supply may increase, and the price may continue to decline [65] Cotton - Market Quotes: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell [66] - Price Outlook: The price is bearish in the short - term due to the weak consumption and unresolved trade issues [66]