Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The spot price of live pigs has dropped rapidly due to limited downstream digestion capacity during the off - season of consumption, and the market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated slaughtering and continued weak operation of the spot market. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 13,930 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton), in Sichuan is 13,500 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year), and in Guangdong is 15,440 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [1]. - Futures Prices: The prices of the live pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 14,075 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 75 yuan/ton), 14,105 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton), and 14,390 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton) respectively [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 33,288 lots (an increase of 1463 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 53,049 lots (a decrease of 1758 lots compared to the previous day); the trading volume of the 2511 contract is 12,422 lots (a decrease of 1590 lots), with an open interest of 49,996 lots (an increase of 1377 lots); the trading volume of the 2601 contract is 14,003 lots (a decrease of 30 lots), with an open interest of 41,852 lots (a decrease of 951 lots) [1]. - Basis: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is - 145 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 125 yuan/ton) [1]. Market Logic - Group companies are actively reducing the weight of pigs recently. Due to the off - season of consumption and limited downstream digestion capacity, the spot price has dropped rapidly, indicating that the previous price increase relied more on inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated slaughtering and continued weak operation of the spot market. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, resulting in a weak reality and strong expectation situation, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view. A value of 0 indicates a neutral view [2].
生猪：关注月初现货预期能否兑现
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-31 01:47