Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various commodities are expected to show short - term oscillatory trends, with different influencing factors for each commodity. For example, the prices of coal, steel, and agricultural products are affected by supply - demand relationships, policies, and cost factors, while precious metals are affected by the US economic data and monetary policies [1][2][4]. 3. Summaries According to Different Commodities Coal and Related Products - Coking Coal: The futures price has dropped from the previous high, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the profitability of terminal steel mills and the resumption of coal mine production [1]. - Coking Coal Data: The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 61.51%, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous period; the daily average output is 52.14 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons; the raw coal inventory is 277.10 tons, a decrease of 15.43 tons; the clean coal inventory is 166.38 tons, a decrease of 9.23 tons [1]. Chemical Products - Soda Ash: The market is oscillating, with supply increasing and downstream demand general. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a resistance level at 1320. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. - Soda Ash Data: The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1366 yuan/ton, the weekly output is 72.38 tons, a decrease of 1.28% month - on - month; the total inventory of manufacturers is 186.46 tons, a decrease of 2.15% week - on - week [2]. - Methanol: The domestic start - up is expected to rise at a high level, and the downstream demand is expected to be stable. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a resistance level at 2430. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [7]. - Methanol Data: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2410 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the port inventory is 80.84 tons, an increase of 8.26 tons week - on - week; the production enterprise inventory is 32.45 tons, a decrease of 1.53 tons week - on - week [6]. - Polypropylene: The start - up is stable, the supply is abundant, and the commercial inventory is expected to remain at a high level. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a resistance level at 7165. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Polypropylene Data: The mainstream price of East China wire - drawing polypropylene is 7126 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton; the capacity utilization rate is 76.46%, and the downstream industry average start - up is 48.37%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points week - on - week [7]. Metals - Iron Ore: Affected by the expected policy of crude steel regulation, the demand may be affected. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [4]. - Iron Ore Data: From July 21st to July 27th, the arrival volume of 47 ports in China is 2319.7 tons, a decrease of 192.1 tons month - on - month; the arrival volume of 45 ports is 2240.5 tons, a decrease of 130.7 tons month - on - month [4]. - Rebar: The cost has increased, supporting the rebound of steel prices, but there are risks of over - speculation. The short - term price may oscillate at a high level [4]. - Rebar Data: On July 30th, the domestic steel market rose. The ex - factory price of billets in Tangshan Qian'an increased by 30 to 3180 yuan/ton, and the average price of 20mm third - grade anti - seismic rebar in 31 major cities is 3463 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Gold: The US second - quarter GDP final value was revised upwards, which is positive for the US dollar index. Gold is still oscillating with a bearish bias [8]. - Silver: The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged is in line with expectations, and silver is expected to oscillate at a high level with a slightly bearish bias [8]. Agricultural Products - Pig: The national pig price has risen. Short - term attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm and the sentiment of secondary fattening. It is recommended to go long in the short term and for farmers to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [5]. - Pig Data: On July 30th, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 20.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.8% from the previous day [5]. - Palm Oil: The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range in the short term. Although there is a possibility of tariff adjustment, the domestic inventory is abundant and the demand is weak [5]. - Palm Oil Data: On July 30th, the trading volume of palm oil is 66 tons, and the total trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil is 102566 tons, an increase of 108% from the previous trading day [5]. - Rapeseed Meal: Affected by the substitution effect of soybean meal and other factors, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trade policy between China and Canada [6]. - Rapeseed Meal Data: In June, the rapeseed crushing volume in Canada is 856096.0 tons, an increase of 3.0% month - on - month; the rapeseed oil production is 364592.0 tons, an increase of 3.22% month - on - month; the rapeseed meal production is 507038.0 tons, an increase of 3.47% month - on - month [6]. Others - Crude Oil: The international oil price has risen for three consecutive days. The inventory is not high, and the production growth is restricted. It is recommended to go long at a low level in the short term [10]. - Crude Oil Data: As of the week of July 25th, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves is 8.29432 billion barrels, an increase of 794 million barrels from the previous week; the commercial crude oil inventory is 4.26691 billion barrels, an increase of 770 million barrels from the previous week [10]. - PTA: The supply is expected to be loose, and the supply - demand relationship may remain balanced. It is recommended to go long at a low level following the trend of crude oil [12]. - PTA Data: The CFR price of PX is 852 US dollars/ton, and the price of East China PTA is 4830 yuan/ton, with a cash - flow cost of 4650 yuan/ton [12]. - Rubber: The raw material price in the origin has decreased, and the supply is expected to increase. The short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the overall trend is oscillatory [13]. - Rubber Data: As of July 27th, the social inventory of natural rubber in China is 129.3 tons, an increase of 4600 tons month - on - month, an increase of 0.4% [13]. - Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds: The policy orientation of the second half of the year is positive for the bond market, but the internal logic of the bond market is not clear. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [9].
宁证期货今日早评-20250731
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-07-31 01:46