长江期货市场交易指引-20250731

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, while treasury bonds are expected to weaken [1][6]. - Black Building Materials: Rebar, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][9]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver are expected to trade within a range or be observed [1][12]. - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; short - term short positions are recommended for soda ash's 09 contract [1][23]. - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner; apples and jujubes are expected to be strong in a fluctuating market [1][38]. - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs and eggs are recommended to be short - sold on rallies; corn and soybean meal are expected to trade within a range; oils are expected to be strong in a fluctuating market [1][41]. Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various futures varieties based on global economic data, trade policies, and supply - demand fundamentals. Factors such as trade frictions, economic data releases, and policy changes have significant impacts on futures prices. Each variety has its own unique supply - demand situation and influencing factors, resulting in different price trends and investment suggestions [6][9][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Index Futures: With various international trade policies, economic data, and domestic policy factors, the index futures are expected to fluctuate. The dense disclosure period of mid - year reports in late August may lead to minor fluctuations [6]. - Treasury Bonds: The market risk appetite has significantly increased, which may still restrict the bond market. Although there was a phased rebound on Wednesday, it is expected to weaken in a fluctuating manner [7]. Black Building Materials - Rebar: After the Sino - US talks and the Politburo meeting, the over - optimistic expectations have cooled. The supply and demand are in a relatively balanced state, and it is expected to enter a short - term fluctuating pattern [9]. - Iron Ore: Although there are expectations of production cuts for the military parade, the high profit of domestic finished products and export situation support the iron ore price. It is expected to adjust and fluctuate at a high level [9]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market has supply disturbances and cautious demand. The coke market has a tight supply - demand pattern, and there is still an expectation of a fifth price increase [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by trade policies and seasonal factors, the copper price is expected to enter a range - bound trading situation [12]. - Aluminum: Due to factors such as changes in bauxite prices, production capacity changes, and weakening downstream demand, the aluminum price is recommended to be observed [14]. - Nickel: The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium and long term, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [18]. - Tin: The supply and demand gap of tin ore is improving, and it is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [19]. - Silver and Gold: With the decline in market risk aversion, the precious metal prices are weakly fluctuating, but there is support at the bottom, and range - bound trading is recommended [20]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and policy - driven expectations, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [24]. - Caustic Soda: The supply is abundant, the demand growth is slowing down, and it is expected to fluctuate. There may be opportunities to go long on dips for the far - month 10 contract [26]. - Styrene: The fundamentals have limited positive factors, and the macro - environment is relatively warm. It is expected to fluctuate [29]. - Rubber: Supported by cost and with the end of the price correction, it is expected to be strong in a fluctuating market [31]. - Urea: The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is gradually increasing, and the price is expected to be weak first and then strong [32]. - Methanol: The supply and demand are stabilizing, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. - Polyolefins: Affected by the macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to decline in the short term [35]. - Soda Ash: After the positive feedback, the price is over - estimated, and short - term short positions are recommended for the 09 contract [36]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: With an increase in global cotton production and consumption, and a relatively tight spot market, the price is expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner [38]. - Apples: With low inventory, the price is expected to remain high and strong in a fluctuating market [39]. - Jujubes: With good second - and third - crop flower fruit - setting and strong demand in the sales area, the price is expected to be strong in the short term [39]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: With weak supply - demand fundamentals, short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention can be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [41]. - Eggs: In the short term, the price increase is limited due to supply and demand factors. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may ease. Short - selling on rallies is recommended for the 09 contract, and long - buying on dips is recommended for the 12 and 01 contracts [43]. - Corn: The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and range - bound trading is recommended. Attention can be paid to the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [44]. - Soybean Meal: In the short term, it is recommended to be cautious when going long; in the medium and long term, long positions can be established on dips [46]. - Oils: Supported by various factors, short - term long positions are recommended for the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, and attention can be paid to the spread rebound strategy of soybean oil and palm oil's 09 contracts [48].