金融期货日报-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views Stock Index - The Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings. The initial estimate of the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US Q2 real GDP is 3%, better than expected. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to decide to convene the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. China's preliminary budget for child - rearing subsidies is 90 billion yuan, and applications will be accepted in late August. Domestic margin trading has reached a high level, while the proportion of fund holdings has declined, showing a divergent trend. Coupled with the fact that the Political Bureau meeting did not exceed expectations, there may be small fluctuations during the intensive disclosure period of mid - year reports in late August, and the stock index may fluctuate. [1] Treasury Bonds - At present, the external environment has not deteriorated significantly. Coupled with the fact that the focus of policy efforts in the second half of the year is on boosting consumption, optimizing the market competition mechanism, and ensuring the stable operation of the capital market, etc., against the background of a significant increase in market risk appetite, it may still pose certain constraints on the bond market. Whether it can fully recover to the starting point of this round of adjustment remains to be seen. [2] 3. Strategy Recommendations Stock Index - Fluctuate [1] Treasury Bonds - Fluctuate weakly [2] 4. Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index rose 0.04%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.28%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.42%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.43%. [4] Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.15%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.08%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.40%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03%. [5] 5. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The RSI indicator shows that the broader market has a risk of correction. [4] Treasury Bonds - The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound. [5] 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,136.40 | 0.04 | 81,931 | 162,604 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,820.00 | 0.28 | 46,511 | 64,619 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,215.40 | - 0.42 | 58,280 | 108,507 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,604.20 | - 0.43 | 144,840 | 185,002 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.30 | 0.15 | 86,268 | 183,354 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.63 | 0.08 | 72,345 | 141,731 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.36 | 0.40 | 159,171 | 115,352 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.34 | 0.03 | 38,836 | 98,577 | [6]