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豆粕早报-20250731
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-31 01:39
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Bean Meal: It is expected to show a large - range oscillation. The domestic soybean and bean meal are in the inventory - accumulation stage until the end of September, with the inventory - accumulation speed in August expected to slow down compared to July. The Sino - US trade tariff is the key cost support for bean meal. After the latest Sino - US negotiation result, the original tariff rate is maintained and extended for 90 days. Under the cost - support expectation, the domestic bean meal price rebounded. With the combination of weak fundamentals and cost support, it presents a large - range market [1][2][3]. - Rapeseed Meal: It is expected to have a large - range oscillation. The global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, but there is dry soil moisture in some areas of Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories of oil mills are decreasing month - on - month, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. From July to September, the rapeseed import decreased significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price, while the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts upward pressure. The low spot price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal reduces the feed addition of rapeseed meal. Yesterday, rapeseed meal followed the price of bean meal and continued to rebound [1][4][6]. - Palm Oil: Be cautious about chasing long positions. After a series of previous positive factors, the market lacks more positive drivers, and Malaysian palm oil may return to the July supply - demand fundamentals. Based on the production and export data from the first 25 days of July, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in July. In the next one to two weeks, the price may need to adjust, and opportunities to go long after the price stabilizes can be considered [1][7][9]. - Cotton: Be cautiously bearish. The soil moisture in the main cotton - producing areas of the US has slightly deteriorated, but the new cotton growth is still good. The weekly export has weakened significantly, suppressing the upward movement of the market. In China, the actual sown area and yield per unit of new cotton have increased, pushing up the guaranteed output. The commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment of downstream finished products has slowed down recently, weakening the cotton - using expectation. The orders of textile enterprises have reached a five - year low, and the operating rate is gradually decreasing. The negative feedback of demand on the inventory - reduction logic is gradually reflected in the market [1][10][13]. - Red Dates: Be cautiously bearish. The growth of new - season jujube trees is relatively good. The market previously expected a significant decline in production due to the "alternate - bearing" phenomenon, but there are no obvious signs of significant production reduction in the second and third - crop fruit - setting in the producing areas. The self - regulatory statement of some enterprises in the industry is difficult to promote widely. With weak fundamentals, there is great pressure for the price to rise after filling the gap. Opportunities to short at high prices after the price rebounds driven by macro - sentiment can be considered [1][15][16]. - Live Pigs: Be cautiously bullish. The risk of second - fattening selling has been realized, and the accelerated short - term slaughter rhythm has pushed down the price of live pigs. However, considering the short - term rebound of the price difference between standard and fat pigs, there is still some enthusiasm in the second - fattening link, making it difficult for the near - month contracts to break through downward. The fact of medium - and long - term over - capacity remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent capacity reduction can boost the far - month price. For near - month contracts, short positions can consider gradually taking profits, and for far - month contracts, long positions can be established at low prices after the spot price stabilizes [1][17][19]. 3. Summaries by Variety Bean Meal - Inventory: As of July 25, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.085 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 106,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.4559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons; the bean meal inventory was 1.0431 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,700 tons. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' bean meal were 8.19 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 days [3]. - Price: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of bean meal was 3,010 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 27 yuan or 0.91%. The national average spot price was 2,969.71 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 36.28 yuan or 1.24% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory: As of July 25, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 137,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 54,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in the main regions of the country was 665,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,300 tons [6]. - Price: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of rapeseed meal was 2,735 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 75 yuan or 2.82%. The national average spot price was 2,698.42 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 85.26 yuan or 3.26% [4]. Palm Oil - Inventory: As of July 25, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 615,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,100 tons or 4.08%, and a year - on - year increase of 108,800 tons or 21.47% [9]. - Price: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of palm oil was 8,982 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 12 yuan or 0.13%. The national average price was 9,063 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 58 yuan or 0.64% [7]. Cotton - Production: In China, the new cotton in Xinjiang has entered the boll - setting stage, with a flowering rate of over 90%. The high - temperature weather in Xinjiang will significantly ease this week, and the probability of re - hyping high - temperature factors is low. The seedling conditions in each main producing area are better than last year, and the national average yield per unit is expected to increase by 2.5% year - on - year, with the output expected to reach over 7.4 million tons [12]. - Inventory: The industrial and commercial inventory of domestic cotton decreased by 151,900 tons to 3.1626 million tons, lower than the same period last year by 37,600 tons. The inventory of pure - cotton yarn and grey cloth continued to accumulate and was higher than last year, but the inventory - accumulation speed slowed down significantly this week [12]. - Price: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, decreased by 1.89% during the day, closing at 13,755 yuan/ton. The domestic spot price remained stable at 15,558 yuan/ton [10][11]. Red Dates - Production: The new - season jujube trees are growing well. The market previously expected a significant decline in production, but the actual situation shows that the production reduction may be within 10%, lower than the previous expectation [15][16]. - Inventory: According to Mysteel's research data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons, higher than the same period last year by 4,422 tons, and the inventory - reduction speed has accelerated compared to the previous four weeks [15]. - Price: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, increased by 0.65% during the day, closing at 10,805 yuan/ton [14][15]. Live Pigs - Inventory and Output: The national sample enterprises' live - pig inventory was 3.71993 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,520 tons or 0.31%; the live - pig output was 1.12559 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,770 tons or 1.51%. The national inventory of breeding sows was 4.043 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons or 0.02% [17]. - Price: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2509, decreased by 0.49% during the day, closing at 14,075 yuan/ton. The domestic live - pig spot price decreased by 0.14% to 14,210 yuan/ton [17][18].