铅锌日评：区间整理-20250731

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to trade in a range [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both ore and ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with continuous inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are weak, and short - term zinc prices are expected to trade in a range considering the repeated "anti - involution" sentiment in the macro - environment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Indicators - Lead - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day; Shanghai lead futures main contract closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, down 0.06% [1]. - Shanghai lead basis was - 140 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 36.37 dollars/ton, down 4.57 dollars [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 37,318 lots, down 22.22%; open interest was 66,741 lots, up 3.42% [1]. - LME lead inventory was 276,375 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipts inventory was 61,934 tons, up 1.64% [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at 1,992 dollars/ton, down 1.39%; Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.48, up 1.35% [1]. - Zinc - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,610 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed at 22,670 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [1]. - Shanghai zinc basis was - 60 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was - 2.69 dollars/ton, up 1.23 dollars [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 141,408 lots, up 11.15%; open interest was 116,245 lots, down 1.17% [1]. - LME zinc inventory was 109,050 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts inventory was 15,232 tons, down 0.49% [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at 2,795.5 dollars/ton, down 0.68%; Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.11, up 0.75% [1]. 3.2 Industry News - Lead - Grupo Mexico's Q2 2025 zinc concentrate output was 45,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 56% due to the operation of Buenavista zinc mine and higher ore grade [1]. - In Ningxia, the arrival of watermelon - harvesting season has increased the demand for logistics vehicles, making it difficult for lead smelters to find transport vehicles, and freight has risen by 20 - 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Northeast China's primary lead smelters plan to conduct equipment maintenance from August for 30 - 45 days, ending around mid - September, with an expected lead production impact of 5,000 - 8,000 tons [1]. - Zinc - Fresnilloplc's Q2 2025 zinc concentrate metal output was 28,400 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 12.5%, mainly due to higher ore grade and throughput at Saucito and Juanicipio, partially offset by lower grade and recovery at Ciénega [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Lead - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had a slight decline in production due to equipment failure last week [1]. - Scrap lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, and recyclers' supplies are limited. Some secondary lead smelters have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversion, but the acceptance of high - priced secondary lead has improved, and secondary lead production is gradually recovering [1]. - As the end of July approaches, the market still expects peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspended purchases for inventory checks at the end of the month [1]. - Zinc - Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. Domestic smelters are negotiating August processing fees, and fees are expected to continue rising, weakening cost support [1]. - Zinc prices strengthened during the week, and downstream off - season purchases decreased significantly [1].