宝城期货原油早报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and an intraday trend of being volatile and slightly strong [1][5] - Due to improved macro factors and enhanced geopolitical sentiment in the oil market, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend on Thursday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Analysis - Short - term: The short - term trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile [1] - Medium - term: The medium - term trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile [1] - Intraday: The intraday trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile and slightly strong [1][5] 3.2 Price and Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 1.66% to 532.5 yuan per barrel [5] 3.3 Driving Logic - Macro Factors: This week, China and the US held the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. The risk appetite of the commodity market has recovered under the improved macro factors [5] - Geopolitical Factors: US President Trump declared his disappointment with Russian President Putin and will shorten the deadline given to Putin, which has enhanced the geopolitical sentiment in the oil market [5]