碳酸锂：宽幅震荡，矿端扰动仍未落地

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is in a wide - range fluctuation, and the disturbances at the mining end have not been settled yet [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 70,600 yuan, down 240 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 792,909 lots, up 48,749 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 272,753 lots, down 27,867 lots from T - 1. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 70,580 yuan, up 20 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 457,258 lots, up 143,169 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 185,345 lots, up 22,225 lots from T - 1 [1] - Spot and Basis Data: The basis of spot - 2509 was 2,350 yuan, up 40 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2511 was 2,370 yuan, down 220 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 20 yuan, down 260 yuan from T - 1 [1] - Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 776 US dollars, down 1 US dollar from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan, unchanged from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,950 yuan, down 200 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,850 yuan, down 150 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 72,858 yuan/ton, down 211 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2] - Greenbushes produced 340,000 tons of lithium concentrate in 2025Q2, unchanged from the previous quarter and up 2.4% year - on - year; sold 412,000 tons of lithium concentrate, up 12.6% from the previous quarter and down 22.3% year - on - year. The production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year is 1.5 - 1.65 million tons, higher than the 2025 fiscal year; the cash cost guidance is 310 - 360 Australian dollars/ton, lower than the 2025 fiscal year [3] - Pilgangoora produced 221,300 tons of lithium concentrate in 2025Q2, up 77.0% from the previous quarter; sold 216,000 tons of lithium concentrate, up 72.1% from the previous quarter. The FOB cost in 2025Q2 was 619 Australian dollars/ton, down 9.6% from the previous quarter. The production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year is 820,000 - 870,000 tons, higher than the 2025 fiscal year; the FOB cost guidance is 560 - 600 Australian dollars/ton, lower than the 2025 fiscal year [3]