中原期货晨会纪要-20250731

1. Market Index Performance - Global Stock Indexes: On July 31, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 44,461.28, down 0.385% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index closed at 21,129.67, up 0.149%; the S&P 500 closed at 6,362.90, down 0.125%; the Hang Seng Index closed at 25,176.93, down 1.362% [2]. - SHIBOR and Dollar Index: The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32, down 3.587% from the previous day; the dollar index was 99.79, down 0.179%. The dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - Commodity Futures: COMEX gold rose 0.078% to 3,327.90; COMEX silver fell 3.152% to 37.18; LME copper fell 0.745% to 9,730.00; NYMEX crude oil rose 1.516% to 70.30. Domestic metals, chemicals, and agricultural products also showed various price changes [2][3][5]. 2. Macro - economic News - Policy Decisions: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan. The government will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, support key areas, and resolve local government debt risks [8]. - Subsidy Policy: The state plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies in 2025, and localities will open application channels by August 31 [8]. - Industry Policies: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will control new capacity in copper smelting and alumina, and promote the exit of backward capacity in some sectors [10]. 3. Morning Views on Major Commodities 3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The peanut market is expected to have a bullish and volatile short - term trend but will maintain a downward long - term trend, with a current pattern of weak supply and demand [12]. - Oils and Fats: The oils and fats market has light trading volume and stable basis. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are also rising [12]. - Sugar: The sugar market is in an internal - strong and external - weak situation. With the arrival of processed sugar in August, the spot market may face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Corn: The corn market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to operate within the range of 2,300 - 2,320 yuan/ton [12]. - Cotton: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are both weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, with attention to the 13,350 - yuan support level [13]. - Hogs: The hog market is in a state of oversupply. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - Eggs: After this round of price adjustment, the egg spot price is expected to be supported by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. The futures market is adjusting the basis by following the spot price decline [14]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to fluctuate slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [16]. - Urea: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to operate within the range of 1,720 - 1,800 yuan/ton [16][18]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Copper prices may face pressure if the 50% tariff is imposed. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [18]. - Alumina: The fundamentals of alumina are in a surplus situation. The futures price may be strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant about macro - sentiment [18]. - Steel Products: The spot market for steel products has weak trading volume. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be supported at certain levels [18]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are currently driven by macro - expectations. It is recommended to operate cautiously [18][19]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal and coke markets are fluctuating and under pressure. The fifth round of coke price increase has started, but steel mills have not responded [19]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and short on rallies [19]. 3.4 Options and Financial Products - Stock Index Futures and Options: On July 30, A - share indexes showed mixed performance. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options changed, and the implied volatility of some options decreased. Trend investors can focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles [19][21].