铅：库存增加，价格承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Lead inventories are increasing, putting pressure on prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, down 0.06%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,020 dollars/ton, up 0.12% [1] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 37,318 lots, a decrease of 10,660 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 4,047 lots, a decrease of 1,220 lots [1] - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 66,741 lots, an increase of 2,207 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 142,798 lots, a decrease of 153 lots [1] - The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -31.8 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.49 dollars/ton [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was -20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import premium was 105 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -755.74 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.29 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -689.99 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/ton [1] - The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 61,934 tons, an increase of 1,002 tons; the LME lead inventory was 276,375 tons, an increase of 6,025 tons [1] - The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 71,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons [1] - The price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -502 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 News - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support rate cuts, pointing out that economic growth has slowed. Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation and stating that the job market has not weakened [2] - Trump said the US will impose a 25% tariff and "punishment" on India, referring to India as a major buyer of Russian energy. Trump announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff, and South Korea will provide the US with $350 billion in investment, which will be owned and controlled by the US. Trump signed an executive order to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil [2] - In 2024, CMOC added 1.5145 million tons of lead, zinc, and copper metal resources and 24 tons of gold [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]