东证化工草根调研二十八：华东丙烯调研

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the propylene industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of propylene in East China are basically balanced, but this balance is fragile, maintained by sacrificing the economics of propylene production [2][16] - Propylene production enterprises consider three major factors: economics, material balance, and customer supply guarantee, resulting in strong price elasticity on the demand side and weak price elasticity on the supply side [2][18] - The propylene industry chain's production plans have an anti - involution nature, which can repair the economics of loss - making downstream sectors and maintain the supply - demand balance [3][23] - Enterprises generally pay attention to propylene futures, but their participation levels are expected to vary greatly [4][24] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Purpose - Understand the production consideration factors of different propylene production enterprises - Understand the ins and outs of the propylene industry chain production process, including raw material sources, product customer composition, and pricing models - Understand the production plans and future outlooks of propylene production enterprises - Understand the participation levels and concerns of propylene production enterprises regarding propylene futures [15] 3.2 Research Core Conclusions - The supply - demand balance of propylene in East China is fragile, maintained by sacrificing the economics of propylene production, such as some MTO and PDH enterprises adjusting their operations [16] - Enterprises consider economics, material balance, and customer supply guarantee. Downstream focuses more on economics, upstream is more affected by material balance, and downstream with high long - term contract ratios is more affected by customer supply guarantee [18][19] - The production plans of the propylene industry chain have an anti - involution nature, which can repair downstream economics and maintain the supply - demand balance [23] - Enterprises are highly concerned about propylene futures, and their participation can be divided into four categories [24] 3.3 Research Detailed Situations 3.3.1 A Large Refining and Chemical Enterprise A - The company has three propylene production devices with a total capacity of over 1 million tons/year, and downstream products include acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, and acetone [25] - Currently, all devices except one acrylonitrile device are operating at full capacity. The refinery is overhauled every 3 - 4 years, and PDH is overhauled once a year [26] - The company prioritizes material balance and then production economics. Steam cracking and MTO devices rarely reduce their loads, while PDH load adjustment is more flexible [27] - Propane is 60% - 70% self - produced and 30% - 40% imported from the Middle East. The steam cracking raw material contains a small amount of externally purchased ethane [29] - When all devices are operating at full capacity, the company exports over 10,000 tons of propylene per month. Currently, it exports about 40,000 tons per month, mainly to surrounding enterprises and sold in East China and Southwest Shandong [30] - The long - term contract is priced based on the average price of Shandong and East China plus a premium or discount [31] - The exported propylene is all Type I, and the self - used propylene is of slightly lower quality [32] - The company has abandoned the plan to expand acrylic acid production and has no current expansion plans [33] 3.3.2 A PDH Enterprise B - The company has a 600,000 - ton/year PDH device, and downstream products include acetone, propylene oxide, and epichlorohydrin [35] - Currently, the PDH is under maintenance, and propylene oxide has stopped production. Phenol - ketone and epichlorohydrin are operating by externally purchasing propylene. PDH is overhauled every two years, and the main catalyst is replaced every four years [37][38] - The company will try to achieve full production and sales in the future and will attempt to digest products within the parent company group during poor market conditions [39] - Before the tariff, 80% of imported propane was from the United States, and now it is 20%. Propane is also imported from Canada and Australia. When externally purchasing propylene, pipeline transportation is preferred [41][42] - The company exports about 50,000 tons of propylene per year, with customers mainly from Jiangsu, Anhui, and Shandong. The downstream is mainly PP powder [44] - The pricing is based on the Zhenhai price when shipping south and the average price of East China and Shandong when shipping north or for short - distance transportation [45] - All propylene is Type I. Propylene oxide has the lowest quality requirement, and phenol - ketone has the highest requirement [46] - The company has abandoned the second - phase expansion plan [47] 3.3.3 An MTO Enterprise C - The company has two MTO devices with a total propylene capacity of about 500,000 tons/year, and downstream products include butanol and octanol [51] - Currently, butanol and octanol are operating at full capacity, and the small MTO device is operating at 70% capacity, while the large one is at 85%. In August, the MTO load will be reduced to the minimum [52] - The MTO process is in long - term loss, and the butanol and octanol profits are also poor this year. However, the company does not consider shutting down to avoid losing pipeline customers [54] - If operating at full capacity, the company will externally purchase about 2 million tons of methanol per year. The small device self - produces part of the methanol, and the large device purchases all externally [55] - When operating at full capacity, the company exports about 12,000 tons of propylene per month, mainly through pipeline and road transportation. The company values price rather than the type of customer [56] - Propylene is priced with reference to the chemical sales price plus a self - determined premium or discount, and ethylene is priced based on a comprehensive consideration of Northeast Asian and chemical sales prices [57] - The propylene produced by the company is all Type I, and the self - used propylene quality is not deliberately adjusted [58] - The company has no expansion plans for the propylene industry chain [59] 3.3.4 A Mixed Alkane Cracking Enterprise D - The company has a steam cracking device with a propylene capacity of about 150,000 tons/year, using a mixture of ethane and propane as raw materials [61] - Ethylene production is fixed, and propylene production depends on the feedstock. Currently, it is about 10,000 tons per month [62] - The ratio of ethane to propane is determined by economics. Currently, ethane accounts for about 70%. The device can use all propane but not all ethane [63] - The raw materials are all imported. Propane comes from the Middle East and the United States, and ethane is from the United States under a ten - year long - term contract. In case of a tariff war, the company will adjust its operations [64] - Propylene is mainly transported by pipeline to enterprises in the park for acrylic acid production, with a small amount sold externally by road [65] - The pricing is based on the average price of Zhenhai and Jinling. Each device is independently accounted for, and internal supply is also priced at the market price [66] - The company is building a PDH device with a capacity of nearly 1 million tons, but it plans to start operation after the downstream PP and butanol and octanol devices are completed in 2027 [67] 3.3.5 A PDH Enterprise E - The company has two PDH devices with a total capacity of about 1 million tons/year, and downstream products include acrylic acid, PP powder, butanol and octanol, and propylene oxide [70] - Currently, one line of PP powder has stopped production, and the rest are operating at full capacity. The company has a processing trade business for acrylic acid and esters for export, with a monthly volume of about 20,000 tons [71] - Currently, acrylic acid and butanol and octanol are profitable, PP breaks even, and propylene oxide is in loss. PDH is in marginal loss, but the company does not consider shutting down to avoid excessive external propylene purchases [72] - 90% of propane comes from the United States. In case of a tariff increase, the company will switch to Middle Eastern and Canadian sources. Currently, US goods are still more suitable [73] - The company externally purchases about 60,000 tons of propylene per month, mainly through shipping and road transportation. The imported propylene is about 300,000 tons per year [74] - The company requires Type I propylene for spot purchases. Type II propylene can be processed or used in the acrylic acid device [75] - The company plans to expand downstream acrylic acid production by nearly 300,000 tons/year, with no upstream expansion plans [76] 3.3.6 A PDH Enterprise F - The company has two PDH devices with a total capacity of about 1 million tons/year, and downstream products are polypropylene powder and modified materials [78] - Currently, one PDH device is operating at 98% - 104% capacity, and one line of powder has stopped production [79] - One PDH device was shut down due to poor economics and transportation issues. It is expected to restart next year due to device maintenance and expected profit improvement [80] - Propane is mainly purchased from the Middle East and the United States. Propylene is 80% purchased by shipping and 20% by road, with about half of the shipping being imports [81] - This year, there is no external propylene sales, and about 10,000 tons are externally purchased per month [82] - The company has no expansion plans, only considering downstream optimization [83] 3.3.7 A Large Refining and Chemical Enterprise G - The company has three production devices with a total capacity of about 3 million tons/year, and downstream products include polypropylene, acetone, acrylonitrile, and propylene oxide [86] - Currently, one cracking device is under maintenance, expected to end in August. PDH is operating at over 80% capacity and is overhauled every 2 - 3 years. The cracking device is overhauled every three years [87] - PDH operation is based on material balance, and economics is an important factor for downstream operation. The load of acrylonitrile is mainly adjusted in recent years [88] - Imported crude oil is mainly from Saudi Arabia, with Oman and Kuwait oil as supplements. PDH uses self - produced propane [90] - When all devices are operating at full capacity, the company can achieve propylene balance. After the acrylonitrile device is put into operation, there will be a shortage. Last year, the maximum external sales volume was 50,000 tons per month, and this year it is about 10,000 tons per month [91] - Propylene price is based on the listed price of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical plus a premium or discount [92] - The company has an acrylonitrile device to be put into operation at the end of this year, but it will probably start operation together with MMA and SAR devices in the second quarter of next year. There is also a subsidiary with a propylene capacity of about 1 million tons to be put into operation at the end of 2026 [93] 3.3.8 A PDH Enterprise H - The company has three PDH devices with a total capacity of about 2 million tons/year. The A base has two devices, and the B base has one device. Downstream products include PP and acrylonitrile [96] - Currently, all upstream and downstream devices are operating, and the PP load is high. One PDH device will be overhauled in September and restarted before National Day [97] - The enterprise calculates the full cost. PDH is in long - term loss and is subsidized by PP. If the externally purchased propylene is cheap and stable, the enterprise may shut down one PDH device [98] - The enterprise only accepts pure propane from the Middle East and the United States. To avoid tariff risks, it will adjust its purchases [100] - The enterprise needs to sell propylene externally, with about 20,000 tons per month from the A base and 30,000 tons per month from the B base. It will also purchase propylene if the price difference is appropriate and has exported propylene in the past [101][102] - The enterprise has some pricing power and affects the listed price in East China. The settlement with the B base is based on the local price [103] 3.4 Investment Suggestions - In the next three months, the propylene futures price will mainly follow the polypropylene futures price. Before November, the impact of spot price changes on futures prices will be weak, and the PL2601 price will be priced by subtracting the processing fee from PP2601 [106] - It is recommended to shrink the PP - PL processing fee when it is high. The current 550 yuan/ton is reasonable, and near the delivery month, a processing fee above 500 yuan/ton can be considered for shrinking [106] - The PL single - side price should be treated with an oscillatory mindset. The PP single - side price is under pressure from new production capacity but has limited further downward space due to the ability to replace recycled materials and the anti - involution market. PL may be slightly stronger than PP [107][108]