Workflow
7月FOMC:鲍威尔鹰派发言打压降息预期
HTSC·2025-07-31 02:13

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July meeting, with two members voting against this decision, marking the first such occurrence since 1993[1] - The statement shifted from a dovish tone to a more hawkish stance, with Powell emphasizing the strength of the labor market and the distance of inflation from the target[1][2] Economic Outlook - Powell acknowledged the economy's growth has moderated, with the assessment changing from "expand at a solid pace" to "moderated"[1][2] - The probability of a rate cut in September dropped to 45%, down from previous expectations, reflecting a cumulative decline of 7 basis points in rate cut expectations for the year[1][3] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose by 6 basis points and 2 basis points, reaching 3.94% and 4.37% respectively[1] - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.4% to 99.8, while the S&P 500 and gold prices fell by 0.8% and 0.9% to $3324 per ounce respectively[1] Employment and Inflation Insights - Powell highlighted a solid labor market but admitted to existing downside risks, with hiring slowing and labor supply decreasing[2][3] - Tariffs are contributing to inflation, with companies expected to gradually pass on costs to consumers, keeping inflation slightly above the Fed's target even when excluding tariff impacts[2] Future Rate Cut Considerations - The potential for a rate cut in September hinges on economic data from July and August, particularly employment and inflation metrics[3] - If employment data weakens or tariff impacts on inflation are less than expected, the Fed may still consider rate cuts in the September meeting[3]