华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][2] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to run at a high level in the short term, with short - term price range - bound operation and subsequent attention to the inventory - consumption trend [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total building steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage this year is sluggish, with weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged at the meeting, which was in line with market expectations and the fifth consecutive decision to maintain the interest rate this year. Powell said it was too early to say whether the Fed would cut the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected [1] - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation. Domestic bauxite supply is limited in the short term, and prices are expected to remain stable. Imported bauxite inventories at ports and alumina plants are high. Although the alumina futures price has risen, the oversupply pattern is hard to change, and the spot price growth is slow. The bauxite price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [2] - As of July 31, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 544,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from Monday and 34,000 tons from last Thursday. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory has lost its advantage of being at a three - year low. The weekly出库 volume of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 92,500 tons, a significant decrease of 15,700 tons from the previous period, reaching a new low this year [2] - Since late July, due to the decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum, the domestic aluminum ingot supply pressure remains high, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The current off - season inventory accumulation and demand - side pressure limit the upward space. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound [2][3]