申万期货原油甲醇策略日报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. The rebound in US economic growth in Q2 exceeded expectations, but economists believe this measure overstates the economic health as the decline in imports is the main reason for the improvement in economic data, and the growth rate of domestic demand in the US is the slowest in two and a half years [3]. - Methanol prices fell 0.9% at night. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins plants increased slightly, while the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants decreased slightly but increased compared to the same period last year. Coastal methanol inventories continued to rise, and methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Crude Oil - Price Changes: SC near - month contract decreased by 0.24% to 529.7, SC next - month contract increased by 2.64% to 528.6; WTI near - month contract increased by 3.39% to 69.25, WTI next - month contract increased by 3.25% to 68.32; Brent near - month contract increased by 0.98% to 73.47, Brent next - month contract increased by 1.37% to 72.75 [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: Trading volumes were 28, 136,660, 306,435, 174,121, 136,654, 467,877 respectively; open interests were 746, 37,676, 351,819, 243,122, 191,811, 551,927 respectively. Open interest changes were 0, - 996, - 7352, 1993, - 35473, 5974 respectively [2]. - Spreads: The current spreads of SC near - month - SC next - month, SC next - month - SC next - to - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, SC near - month - Brent near - month, WTI near - month - WTI next - month, Brent near - month - Brent next - month were 1.1, 528.6, 30.6, 0.2, 6.68, 0.72 respectively, different from the previous values [2]. Methanol - Price Changes: The 01, 05, and 09 contracts decreased by 0.40%, 0.33%, and 0.62% respectively to 2510, 2447, 2419. The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01 changed to 63, 28, - 91 respectively [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: Trading volumes were 141,975, 4,445, 623,870 respectively; open interests were 278,074, 13,180, 579,345 respectively. Open interest changes were - 828, 1864, 3317 respectively [2]. Spot Market Methanol - Price Changes: The port price in US dollars was 0 (down 276), the prices in East China, North China, and South China were 2435 (down 5), 2180 (unchanged), 2410 (up 5) respectively [2]. Crude Oil - International Market: The prices of OPEC basket crude oil, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, Oman, Dubai, and Cinta were 72.61, 71.57, 69.21, 73.02, 72.51, 67.72 respectively, all higher than the previous values [2]. - Domestic Market: The prices of Daqing and Shengli crude oil were 66.29 and 68.33 respectively, up from the previous values. The Chinese gasoline wholesale price index, Chinese diesel wholesale price index, FOB naphtha (Singapore), and ex - factory price of jet kerosene were 8,060, 6,969, 63.06, 5,676 respectively, also higher than before [2]. Comments and Strategies Crude Oil - US economic growth data in Q2 was better than expected, but domestic demand growth was slow. As of July 25, US crude oil inventories increased, gasoline inventories decreased, and distillate inventories increased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3]. Methanol - The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins plants increased slightly, and the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants decreased slightly but increased compared to last year. Coastal methanol inventories continued to rise. The estimated arrival volume of imported methanol from July 25 to August 10 is 69.88 - 700,000 tons. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [3].