山金期货黑色板块日报-20250731

Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - For the steel sector, after the Politburo meeting, the relevant positive factors have been fully anticipated by the market, leading to a decline in futures prices. In the short - term, the steel market is in a consumption off - season, with demand expected to weaken further and inventory likely to rise. For the iron ore sector, the current high iron - water production has limited room for further increase, and the high supply and relatively high port trade - mine inventory create downward pressure on futures prices [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Situation: After the Politburo meeting, the futures prices of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil rose and then fell. In terms of supply and demand, last week, the production and apparent demand of threaded steel increased, the factory inventory decreased for the second consecutive week, and the social inventory increased for the second consecutive week. The total inventory of the five major varieties increased, and the apparent demand declined. In the summer high - temperature season, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory is likely to rise. The market's focus will shift to the peak - season consumption from August to September [2]. - Technical Analysis: The futures prices decreased with a reduction in positions, driven by the departure of long - position holders [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Short - term short selling can be considered during the rebound of futures prices, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss. Avoid chasing short positions rashly [2]. - Data Highlights: The closing price of the threaded - steel main contract was 3315 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous day; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3483 yuan/ton, down 0.57% from the previous day. The 247 - steel - mill blast - furnace operating rate was 83.46%, and the average daily iron - water output was 242.23 million tons, down 0.09% from the previous week [2]. 2. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Currently, the profitability of steel mills is fair, but the iron - water production is under great pressure to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, and the future arrival volume is expected to remain high. Although the port inventory is slowly decreasing, the high port trade - mine inventory exists. After the conclusion of the Sino - US trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting, the positive factors have been released, and there is significant downward pressure on futures prices [4]. - Technical Analysis: The futures prices have stabilized in the short - term, the oscillation range has narrowed, and the direction is to be determined, expected to follow the trend of threaded steel [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Short - term short selling can be considered during the rebound of futures prices, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss. Conservative investors can stay on the sidelines [4]. - Data Highlights: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore main contract was 789 yuan/dry ton, down 1.13% from the previous day. The Australian iron - ore shipment was 1638.7 million tons, up 16.64% from the previous week, and the Brazilian iron - ore shipment was 731.6 million tons, down 12.19% from the previous week [4][5]. 3. Industry News - The China Coking Industry Association Market Committee decided to raise the coke price starting from July 31. The China Metal Materials Circulation Association issued an initiative to resist "involution - style competition" in the steel circulation industry. The Xingtai market plans to raise the coke price. Gansu Energy Chemical's Wangjiashan Coal Mine No. 1 Well will resume production. The Ulanqab Industrial Alliance and the Ulanqab Ferroalloy Industry Association called on the industry to balance interests and resist involution. Affected by Typhoon "Zhujiecao", shipping and some wood processing in the Yangtze River's Jiangsu section have been suspended [7].