Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Hold short positions [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bullish [1] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks outweigh the weakening fundamentals, with oil prices showing near - term strength and long - term weakness. Hold short positions [1][3][4] - LPG: Cost - end support and decent fundamentals lead to a rebound. Cautiously bullish [1][6][7] - L: Downstream inquiries increase. Cautiously bullish, but with a weak fundamental pattern [1][9][13] - PP: High upstream maintenance and improved export margins. Cautiously bullish, but high production limits the rebound space [1][16][20] - PVC: Insufficient policy support for demand in the short term. Cautiously bearish [1][23][26] - PX: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and crude oil prices are strong. Cautiously bullish [1][29][31] - PTA: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Cautiously bearish [1][33][35] - Ethylene glycol: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the macro situation does not exceed expectations. Cautiously bearish [1][37][39] - Glass: The market is affected by policy expectations, with inventory reduction. Cautiously bearish [2][41][43] - Soda ash: Affected by policy expectations, but with inventory accumulation and weak downstream support. Cautiously bearish [2][44][45] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, and demand is mixed. Cautiously bearish [2][46][47] - Methanol: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand feedback needs attention. Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Fundamentals are relatively loose, with cost support. Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cost - end pressure and neutral - bearish fundamentals. Bearish [2] - Propylene: Weak basis and abundant supply. Cautiously bearish [2] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices continued to strengthen. WTI rose 1.14%, Brent rose 1.10%, and SC rose 1.77% [3] - Fundamentals: Geopolitical and macro factors are favorable in the short term, but OPEC's production increase brings supply pressure. In terms of supply, Guyana's average crude oil production in the first half of the year was 639,000 barrels per day, and the EU imposed new sanctions on Russia. In terms of demand, India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% compared with the previous month, while China's imports increased. In terms of inventory, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased [4] - Strategy: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess. In the short - term, it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [525 - 540] [5] LPG - Market Performance: On July 30, the PG main contract closed at 4045 yuan/ton, up 0.62% [6] - Fundamentals: The cost - end oil price stabilizes, and downstream chemical demand recovers. The base spread is high, and inventory shows some changes. The supply of liquefied gas has decreased slightly, and the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates have increased [7] - Strategy: Sell put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4000 - 4100] [8] L - Market Performance: Futures prices showed minor fluctuations, and the main contract's trading volume decreased [10] - Fundamentals: The off - peak season for agricultural films is about to pass, and downstream inquiries have increased. However, most devices are restarting, and social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks. The base spread and monthly spread are at low levels [13] - Strategy: Reduce long positions, and industrial customers can sell for hedging when the delivery month approaches. L is expected to be in the range of [7300 - 7500] [13] PP - Market Performance: Futures prices declined with reduced positions [17] - Fundamentals: High upstream maintenance and improved export margins, but downstream replenishment power is insufficient, and commercial inventory has started to accumulate. The base spread and monthly spread are at low levels, and high production limits the rebound space [20] - Strategy: Reduce long positions, and industrial customers can sell for hedging. PP is expected to be in the range of [7000 - 7300] [20] PVC - Market Performance: Futures prices declined with reduced positions [23] - Fundamentals: The Politburo meeting did not mention the real estate market, resulting in insufficient short - term demand - side policy support. New production capacity is being released, and social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks [26] - Strategy: Reduce long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average. V is expected to be in the range of [5050 - 5300] [26] PX - Market Performance: Futures and spot prices showed certain changes [29] - Fundamentals: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with inventory reduction but still at a relatively high level. PXN is not low, and crude oil prices are strong recently [31] - Strategy: Hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips and sell put options. PX is expected to be in the range of [6970 - 7050] [31][32] PTA - Market Performance: Futures and spot prices changed [33] - Fundamentals: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase due to new device production, and demand is seasonally weak. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries are somewhat differentiated. TA's fundamentals are expected to shift from tight balance to looseness [35] - Strategy: Reduce long positions, shrink the PTA processing fee, or sell call options. TA is expected to be in the range of [4820 - 4890] [36] Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: Futures and spot prices changed [37] - Fundamentals: Domestic and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders are declining. Supply and demand are in a tight balance in July, and low inventory provides some support [39] - Strategy: Reduce long positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. EG is expected to be in the range of [4390 - 4470] [40] Glass - Market Performance: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market rose slightly [42] - Fundamentals: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, the market sentiment was strong. The inventory continued to decline, and the profit situation improved [43] - Strategy: FG is expected to be in the range of [1180, 1260] [43] Soda Ash - Market Performance: Heavy - soda ash spot prices were stable, and the futures market showed mixed trends [44] - Fundamentals: Affected by the policy expectation, the industry sentiment was boosted, but the alkali plant inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream support was weak [45] - Strategy: SA is expected to be in the range of [1300, 1370] [45] Caustic Soda - Market Performance: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market declined [46] - Fundamentals: Supply is approaching saturation, and demand is mixed. The main downstream alumina industry has increased its production, but non - aluminum demand is still weak. The inventory of liquid caustic soda has increased [47] - Strategy: SH is expected to be in the range of [2610, 2680] [47] Methanol - Market Performance: Not fully described in the provided text - Fundamentals: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand feedback needs attention. Social inventory has decreased, but overall it is at a low level [2] - Strategy: Take profit on long positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. MA is expected to be in the range of [2380 - 2430] [2] Urea - Market Performance: Not fully described in the provided text - Fundamentals: The overall domestic supply is relatively loose, with cost support. The demand in the domestic industrial and agricultural sectors is weak, but exports are relatively good [2] - Strategy: Reduce long positions, arrange short positions on rallies, and sell high - strike call options. UR is expected to be in the range of [1710 - 1750] [2] Asphalt - Market Performance: Not fully described in the provided text - Fundamentals: The cost - end oil price is under pressure, and supply and demand are both decreasing. The inventory is accumulating, and the crack spread is at a high level [2] - Strategy: Try short positions with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3600 - 3700] [2] Propylene - Market Performance: The spot market showed differences in price trends [2] - Fundamentals: The PDH operating rate has been rising, and supply is abundant. Pay attention to relevant anti - involution policies [2] - Strategy: Hold the 1 - 2 month spread reverse arbitrage and increase the processing fee of the PP futures market. PL is expected to be in the range of [6500 - 6700] [2]
中辉能化观点-20250731
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-31 02:35