2025年7月美联储议息会议点评：降息暂缓，但前景逐渐明朗

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% with a 9:2 voting outcome, aligning with market expectations[6] - The statement from the meeting indicated a dovish tone, suggesting a slowdown in economic growth compared to previous assessments[7] - There is an increasing internal division within the Fed regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation[7] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to face downward pressure in Q3 2025 as the effects of "consumption rush" fade, potentially leading to a 25 basis point rate cut in September[6][7] - The second quarter GDP growth rate was revised to an annualized 3%, exceeding expectations of 2.6%, primarily due to a significant decrease in imports[7] - Consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan index, showed a notable slowdown in recovery, indicating potential challenges ahead[7] Inflation and Tariffs - Inflation is projected to gradually return to the 2% target, with service inflation declining while tariffs are pushing up goods inflation[7] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is expected to manifest more slowly than previously anticipated, suggesting that inflation pressures may not be significant in the near term[7] Future Rate Cuts - The likelihood of further rate cuts in Q4 2025 is considered low due to the anticipated effects of tariffs on inflation and fiscal spending from the "Great American Plan"[6][7]