国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 31, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is affected by factors such as macro - economic policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] - Silver: Experiences a high - level decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] Base Metals - Copper: The implementation of US copper import tariffs puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12][14] - Zinc: Shows a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15][17] - Lead: An increase in inventory puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18][19] - Tin: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21][25] - Aluminum: Experiences a slight oscillation; Alumina's price weakens; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 0, alumina's is - 1, and casting aluminum alloy's is 0 [2][27][29] - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - Carbonate Lithium: Has a wide - range oscillation, and the mine - end disturbance has not materialized, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37] - Industrial Silicon: Sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] Energy - Iron Ore: Supported by macro - expectations, shows a relatively strong oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41] - Coking Coal and Coke: The sentiment is realized, with a wide - range oscillation. Both have a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55] - Power Coal: Daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes with an oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60] - Fuel Oil: The upward trend continues, and it remains strong in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's futures price shows a relatively strong oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [2][4][52] Chemicals - PTA: Supported by cost, with a positive spread in monthly contracts [2] - MEG: The unilateral trend remains weak, with a reverse spread in monthly contracts [2] - Rubber: Oscillates [2][32] - Synthetic Rubber: Weak in the short - term, but the downside space narrows [2][34] - Asphalt: Follows the strong upward trend of crude oil with small - step increases [2][36] - LLDPE: The trend still faces pressure [2][38] - PP: The spot price oscillates with light trading volume [2][39] - Caustic Soda: Attention should be paid to delivery pressure [2][40] - Paper Pulp: Oscillates weakly [2][41] - Glass: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2][43] - Methanol: Oscillates under pressure [2][44] - Urea: The pressure gradually increases [2][46] - Styrene: Profits are compressed [2][48] - Soda Ash: There are few changes in the spot market [4][49] - PVC: Weakly oscillates in the short - term [4][50] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Supported in the short - term by the positive sentiment of crude oil and macro - economy [4][59] - Soybean Oil: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress [4][59] - Soybean Meal: US soybeans close lower, limiting the rebound of domestic soybean meal [4][61] - Soybean: Oscillates weakly [4][61] - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4][63] - Sugar: Oscillates within an interval [4][65] - Cotton: The sentiment cools down, and Zhengzhou cotton futures decline [4][66] - Eggs: The spot price weakens [4][68] - Hogs: Attention should be paid to whether the early - month spot expectations can be realized [4][69] - Peanuts: The old crop has support at the bottom [4][70] Others - Container Freight Index (European Line): Hold 10 short positions [4][53] - Short - fiber and Bottle - chip: Oscillate in the short - term [4][56] - Offset Printing Paper: Oscillates at a low level with limited upward momentum [4][57] - Pure Benzene: Oscillates relatively strongly [4][58] - Log: Oscillates repeatedly [2][61]