中泰期货晨会纪要-20250731

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend - bearish products such as aluminum, zinc, and alumina; products with a bias towards a downward - oscillating trend like liquefied petroleum gas; oscillating products including thirty - year bonds and sugar; products with a bias towards an upward - oscillating trend such as crude oil and fuel oil; and no products with a trend - bullish view [4]. - Based on quantitative indicators, there are products with a bearish bias like corn starch and glass; oscillating products such as Shanghai gold and palm oil; and products with a bullish bias like Shanghai lead and Shanghai copper [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Information - China's policies include implementing more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, addressing local government debt risks, and enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged, and the US imposed tariffs on multiple products. China plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for parenting subsidies, and relevant industries plan to control over - capacity [9][10][11]. Stock Index Futures - Pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. If it is not broken, the trend will continue. The A - share market showed mixed trends, and the capital market has new policy expressions. Be cautious about the movement of profit - taking funds [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - Policy implementation may repair inflation expectations, and the bond market may rebound. Pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level. In the medium term, consider shorting on rallies [15]. Black Commodities - Coking Coal and Coke: Prices may enter a high - level oscillation stage. Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, but there are also downward price pressures. Be cautious in operation [17]. - Ferroalloys: Costs vary, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and it is advisable to be bearish on rallies [18]. - Soda Ash and Glass: Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass can be put on hold after closing long positions. Pay attention to supply - side resumption and demand improvement [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at high levels, and alumina prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Both can be shorted on rallies [21]. - Shanghai Zinc: Social inventories are increasing, and zinc prices will oscillate downward due to increased supply and weak demand [22]. - Lithium Carbonate: It will mainly oscillate due to limited supply - side disturbances and weakening macro - sentiment [23]. - Industrial Silicon: It will maintain an oscillating trend, and the core contradiction lies in the resumption progress of leading manufacturers [24]. - Polysilicon: There is a strong policy expectation but a weak supply - demand reality. Be cautious in operation and pay attention to policy implementation and inventory generation [25]. - Cotton: Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. It is advisable to be bearish on rallies and pay attention to macro and supply - demand changes [26]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: International sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestic sugar prices are under pressure from imports but supported by low domestic inventories. It will follow international sugar prices [29]. - Eggs: Eggs are in a seasonal upward trend, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to position control [33]. - Apples: Consider a long - spread strategy and pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [34]. - Corn: Corn prices will oscillate in a range. Pay attention to market sentiment and policy impacts [34]. - Red Dates: Observe the fruit - setting situation in the production area and changes in the market [37]. - Hogs: Short near - month contracts and consider a reverse - spread strategy. The short - term market is supply - strong and demand - weak [37]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: It may shift to a supply - exceeding - demand pattern. In the short term, it may rebound due to sanctions on Russia. Pay attention to sanctions and peak - season demand [40]. - Fuel Oil: It follows crude oil prices. The cracking profit is weakening, and pay attention to the impact of power generation demand and shipping [41]. - Plastics: The supply - demand situation is weak. It is advisable to be slightly bearish after a rebound [43]. - Methanol: It follows the overall commodity trend and is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider holding put options or being slightly bearish [44]. - Caustic Soda: The fundamentals are relatively healthy. If there are warehouse receipts, the spot and futures may be strong in the short term [45]. - Asphalt: It follows crude oil prices. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and production is expected to decrease in August [46]. - Polyester Industry Chain: It is significantly affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. Consider shorting on rallies [48]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: It rebounds with crude oil but is weaker. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - long term [49]. - Pulp: It will oscillate weakly with limited amplitude. Observe port de - stocking and spot transactions [50]. - Logs: The fundamentals are supply - and - demand weak. Be cautious about chasing high prices and consider hedging strategies [51]. - Urea: Be bearish as enterprise inventories increase and the market is weak [52].