申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The market showed a divergence this week after a rebound last week, and the spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and attention should be paid to the process of fundamental repair. Recently, supply and demand tend to gradually digest the inventory accumulated in the second quarter [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - LL Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7400, 7395, and 7335 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -104, -98, and -121 yuan/ton and drops of -1.39%, -1.31%, and -1.62% respectively. The trading volumes were 114997, 1587, and 388896, and the open interests were 157846, 7336, and 346401, with changes of 5906, 528, and -20147 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 60, and -65 respectively [2] - PP Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7136, 7137, and 7130 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -100, -90, and -91 yuan/ton and drops of -1.38%, -1.25%, and -1.26% respectively. The trading volumes were 120821, 2000, and 344922, and the open interests were 165953, 9581, and 325802, with changes of -3873, -366, and -29838 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -1, 7, and -6 respectively [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2435 yuan/ton, 6220 yuan/ton, 544 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6850 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Spot Market: The current prices of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7650, 7200 - 7450, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively; the current prices of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7150, 7000 - 7150, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Tuesday (July 29), the settlement price of West Texas Light Crude Oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $69.21 per barrel, up $2.50 or 3.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.53 - $69.76. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $72.51 per barrel, up $2.47 or 3.53% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.86 - $73.08 [2]