生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250731

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of shock adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, making it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in a volatile manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention needs to be emphasized due to the significant influence of macro - sentiment on commodities [4]. 3. Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On July 30, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 0. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to whether the farming sector will continue to reduce the weight of pigs. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 1,758 lots today, with a position of about 53,000 lots. The highest price was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,005 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,075 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in a volatile manner. - Market bearish logic: slow and difficult weight - reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. - Market bullish logic: there is still room for an increase in frozen - pork inventory, strong resilience of the spot price indicating less loose supply - demand than expected, and limited increase in future slaughter volume with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestions - View: shock adjustment. - Core logic: based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs will weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight, providing some support for the pig price; if the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in a volatile manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is necessary [4]. Market Overview - National average pig slaughter price on July 30 was 13.93 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 0.07%. - In Henan, the pig slaughter price was 13.98 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.29%. - In Sichuan, the pig slaughter price remained unchanged at 13.24 yuan/kg. - Among futures contracts, the price of the 07 contract increased by 0.52%, while the prices of the 01, 03, 05, 09, and 11 contracts decreased, with the 09 contract falling by 0.53%. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 115 yuan to - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 54.76% [6]. Key Data Tracking The report presents historical data charts of futures contract closing prices, basis, and price differences between contracts in recent 180 days, as well as data on national average pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip pork average price, and national average corn purchase price in grain depots [14].