镍与不锈钢日评：“反内卷”情绪变化快、波动大-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on July 30, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range, with increased trading volume and open interest, and LME nickel fell 1.51%. The spot market improved, and the basis premium widened. The nickel iron fundamentals are loose, market sentiment cooled, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. - For stainless steel, on July 30, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range, trading volume increased, and open interest decreased. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium remained unchanged. The current macro - sentiment has a large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, the price needs time to return to the fundamentals, and it is expected to follow macro fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - Futures Market Data: On July 30, the closing price of the Shanghai futures near - month nickel contract was 121,620 yuan/ton (-100), the trading volume was 133,758 lots (+33,388), and the open interest was 91,177 lots (+1,458). The LME 3 - month nickel spot official price was 15,500 dollars/ton (-60) [2]. - Supply Side: Nickel ore prices were flat, the arrival of nickel ore at ports increased last week, and port inventories decreased. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed, domestic production decreased in July, Indonesian production decreased, and nickel - iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased in July, and export profits increased [2]. - Demand Side: Ternary production increased; stainless - steel plant production decreased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. - Inventory: SHFE inventories decreased, LME inventories increased, social inventories decreased, and bonded - area inventories remained unchanged [2]. Stainless Steel Market - Futures Market Data: On July 30, the closing price of the Shanghai stainless - steel futures near - month contract was 12,920 yuan/ton (+10), the trading volume was 153,403 lots (+14,642), and the open interest was 102,650 lots (-620) [2]. - Supply Side: Stainless - steel production decreased in July [2]. - Demand Side: Terminal demand was weak [2]. - Cost: High - nickel pig iron prices rose, and high - carbon ferrochromium prices were flat [2]. - Inventory: SHFE stainless - steel inventories decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 63,850 tons (-17,800) [2]. Other Information - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, and governors Farrer and Powell voted against and advocated for a rate cut [2].