2025年8月油脂油料市场展望：政策、关税发力，油脂走势分化

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The U.S. biodiesel policy is favorable for the vegetable oil market, which may support the prices of CBOT soybeans and U.S. soybean oil. Due to the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the rising premium of Brazilian soybeans, the import of soybeans in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and soybean oil has upward potential [2][13][23]. - The current situation of palm oil is that Malaysia has a high inventory while Indonesia has a decreasing inventory. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 plan is expected to increase industrial consumption, but the export data of Malaysian palm oil shows weak demand. The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, lacking upward momentum [3][16][24]. - Affected by the current situation of weak supply and demand, rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation pattern [3][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review In July, the trends of oils and fats were divergent. Palm oil continued to rise, soybean oil first declined and then rose, and rapeseed oil maintained a wide - range oscillation. The U.S. biodiesel policy and Indonesia's B40 plan boosted the prices of palm oil and international oils, while the improvement of China - Australia trade relations put pressure on rapeseed oil prices [9]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - U.S. Biodiesel Policy Benefits: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's proposed biofuel blending rules for 2026 - 2027 are favorable for the industrial demand of domestic oils. The demand for soybean oil in biofuels is increasing, and the future domestic crushing demand for U.S. soybeans is expected to grow. The export tax cuts in Argentina may stimulate soybean exports, and the high premium of Brazilian soybeans and the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans support the price of soybean oil. Although the soybean oil inventory is currently high, the seasonal inventory inflection point is approaching in August, which also supports the price [10][13][15]. - Palm Oil Supply - Demand Pattern is Loose: In June, Malaysian palm oil continued to accumulate inventory, and the export data in July was not ideal. It is expected to maintain a pattern of high inventory and high production in the third quarter. In Indonesia, the implementation of the B40 plan is expected to increase industrial consumption, but overall, the upward momentum of palm oil is weak [16][17][24]. - Rapeseed Oil Continues the Oscillation Pattern: The new rapeseed production in Canada is expected to decrease, and the export demand is strong, making ICE rapeseed prices strong. The improvement of China - Australia trade relations may lead to an increase in the import of Australian rapeseed, which is negative for the domestic rapeseed market. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has not ended, and the trend of reducing rapeseed imports and increasing rapeseed oil imports is expected to continue. Rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation [20][22][24]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the rising premium of Brazilian soybeans, the import of soybeans in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and soybean oil has upward potential [2][13][23]. - The high - inventory and high - production pattern of palm oil is difficult to change, lacking upward momentum [3][16][24]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation pattern [3][22][24].