宏观利多不足，纸浆短期或继续回落

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [4] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [4] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating [4] - Hogs: Oscillating [5] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [7] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating with a slight downward trend [10] - Cotton: Oscillating, with a reverse spread in the monthly price difference [11] - Sugar: Oscillating with a long - term downward trend [12] - Pulp: Oscillating with an upward trend [13] - Logs: Oscillating with a slight downward trend [15] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It points out that the prices of these products are affected by various factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and policies. In the short term, the prices of most products will continue to oscillate, and the long - term trends vary depending on the specific product's supply - demand situation and market expectations. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Product 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - View: Yesterday, rapeseed oil was strong. Pay attention to the performance at the technical resistance level. - Logic: Favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas has increased the expectation of a bumper harvest. The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, and the US dollar has strengthened. The price of crude oil has risen due to concerns about the interruption of Russian oil supply. The production of palm oil is in the increasing season, and the export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is high, and the import situation of domestic rapeseed remains uncertain. - Outlook: In the short term, the oil market may oscillate with a slight upward trend as market sentiment stabilizes [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - View: The market sentiment is bullish, and rapeseed meal leads the protein sector. - Logic: Sino - US negotiations have not made substantial progress. The excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and the future weather is favorable for a bumper harvest. The short - term supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, but the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be short. The consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily. - Outlook: The market is expected to maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The near - month contracts will mainly fluctuate within a range, while the far - month contracts will strengthen [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - View: Oscillating within a range, waiting for new guidance. - Logic: The supply of old - crop corn is expected to tighten in July - August, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. The production of new - crop corn is normal, and the supply from abroad is abundant. - Outlook: In the short term, the price may rebound due to the reduction of old - crop inventory. After the new - crop corn is listed, the price is expected to decline [4]. 3.1.4 Hogs - View: At the end of the month, the price movement slows down, and the hog price oscillates within a narrow range. - Logic: In the short term, large - scale farms are actively selling hogs, but small - scale farmers still have the intention to fatten. In the medium term, the supply of hogs is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, policies are expected to drive capacity reduction. The terminal consumption demand is limited, and the inventory pressure is high. - Outlook: Oscillating. The near - month market is still affected by over - capacity, while the long - term market is expected to strengthen due to capacity reduction policies [5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - View: After the macro - event is settled, short - term observation is still needed. - Logic: The market sentiment was affected by the Politburo meeting. The supply of raw materials is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable. - Outlook: In the short term, it will follow the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to changes in capital sentiment [7]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - View: The fundamental variables are limited, and the market oscillates with a slight downward trend. - Logic: The BR market oscillated weakly yesterday due to a slight cooling of market sentiment and a decline in raw material prices. The fundamentals of raw material butadiene have not changed significantly, and the supply is expected to remain tight in the short term. - Outlook: It will maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in equipment operation [10]. 3.1.7 Cotton - View: The monthly price difference is decreasing. Pay attention to the change in the outflow speed of warehouse receipts. - Logic: The supply of cotton is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 season. The current demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is decreasing but still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The 09 contract's upward momentum has weakened, and the 1 - month contract may rise in the short term but will be under pressure in the medium term. - Outlook: Oscillating, with a reverse spread in the monthly price difference [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - View: The sugar price has declined. Pay attention to the supply pressure. - Logic: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. Brazil's sugar production ratio is expected to remain high, and India's sugar production is expected to increase. The domestic sales progress is fast, but the import volume has increased. - Outlook: Oscillating with a long - term downward trend. In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - View: The Politburo meeting provided insufficient bullish factors, and the pulp price may continue to decline in the short term. - Logic: The futures price of pulp fell yesterday due to a weakening of the commodity trading atmosphere. The current supply of pulp is excessive, and the demand is expected to improve marginally in the second half of the year. The industry has a ceiling expectation for price increases. - Outlook: In the near term, the fluctuation will mainly follow the macro - environment, and the pulp futures price is expected to oscillate upwards [13]. 3.1.10 Logs - View: The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the market has followed the decline. - Logic: After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment cooled down, and the log market oscillated weakly. The supply and demand of the log market are both weak. The supply from New Zealand has slowed down, and the demand lacks obvious growth points. - Outlook: Oscillating with a slight downward trend in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the quantity of effective delivery products of the 09 contract and fluctuations caused by the change of peak and off - peak seasons [15]. 3.2 Operation Suggestions - Pulp: In the short term, remain on the sidelines. For arbitrage, conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread and a spot - futures positive spread [13]. - Protein Meal: Hold long positions at 2900 and add positions on dips. Buy options to bet on increased volatility [4]. - Hogs: Pay attention to the reverse spread strategy [5]. - Logs: For speculators, remain on the sidelines. For industrial players, participate in hedging according to their own costs [16].