2025年二季度美国GDP数据点评：“抢进口”效果反转，推动美Q2增速超预期

Economic Growth - The initial estimate of the US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 is 3.0%, a significant increase from the previous value of -0.5%[1] - Net exports contributed 5.0 percentage points to GDP growth, reversing the previous drag of 4.6 percentage points[1] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q2 2025, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter, contributing 1.0 percentage point to GDP growth[1] - Goods consumption increased to 2.2% from 0.1%, while services consumption rose to 1.1% from 0.6%[1] Investment Trends - Non-residential fixed investment recorded a growth of 1.9%, down from 10.3%, contributing 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth[1] - Residential investment declined by 4.6%, worsening from a previous decline of 1.3%, detracting 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth[1] Inventory and Government Spending - Inventory investment negatively impacted GDP growth by 3.2 percentage points, a shift from a positive contribution of 2.6 percentage points in the previous quarter[1] - Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, with federal government spending detracting 0.2 percentage points[1] Trade Dynamics - The trade deficit for May 2025 was recorded at $71.517 billion, with a goods trade deficit of $96.423 billion and a services trade surplus of $25.994 billion[1] - The impact of "import rush" has diminished, leading to a rapid narrowing of the trade deficit, which has now become a contributor to GDP growth[1]