鲍威尔偏鹰，降息预期回撤或接近尾声

Group 1: Federal Reserve Stance - Federal Reserve continues to pause interest rate cuts, indicating a shift from "economic activity continues to expand steadily" to "economic activity growth has slowed in the first half of the year" [1] - Powell's hawkish stance suggests that asserting a rate cut in September is premature, with inflation outlook showing mixed signals [1] - Market's expectation for rate cuts has retracted by 10 basis points, with the CME FedWatch indicating a drop from 45 basis points to 35 basis points for the year [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Labor market indicators such as turnover rates, job vacancies, and unemployment rates are close to levels from a year ago, indicating no significant weakness [1] - Employment creation and labor supply are slowing, presenting downside risks to the labor market [1] - The market is now leaning towards a single rate cut for the year, with expectations for a potential shift towards rate cut anticipation in August if tariff impacts on inflation remain manageable [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the US dollar index rose approximately 0.5%, nearing 100, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased from 4.34% to around 4.38% [1] - The market's confidence in a rate cut in October has decreased to about 80% following the meeting [1] - The overall economic data rebound and retraction of rate cut expectations are expected to support the dollar, although future agreements remain uncertain [2]