固定收益点评：会后的修复行情

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on July 30 analyzed the current economic situation and deployed economic work for the second half of the year. The subsequent policy direction is expected to further support the economy, and the bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase [11][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - The Political Bureau's statement on the economy is positive, with GDP growing by 5.4% and 5.2% year-on-year in Q1 and Q2 respectively, exceeding the annual target of around 5%. However, the economy still faces structural issues, and policies will further support the economy to prevent systemic risks [11]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy continues to be proactive and may increase efforts at appropriate times. The issuance of government bonds in the first half of the year was rapid, and if the net financing rhythm from January to May is maintained, the annual issuance limit may be reached in August [2][12]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - The meeting adheres to a "moderately loose" monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and lower the comprehensive social financing cost. Bank deposit rates may be further reduced in the second half of the year [3][13]. 3.4 Industry Clearance - The policy will continue to standardize market competition, specifically targeting over - capacity in key industries and regulating local government investment promotion behaviors [4][14]. 3.5 Consumption and Investment - Consumption policies will support both commodity and service consumption and expand the scope of service consumption support. The "Two - Major" construction will stimulate private investment, as the previous intensive issuance of government bonds did not lead to a rapid increase in infrastructure investment [5][15][17]. 3.6 Real Estate - Real estate policies will focus on stabilizing the market rather than stimulating it. "Urban renewal" may be an important measure to increase potential demand [6][18]. 3.7 Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to enter a recovery phase. With continuous liquidity and stable market expectations, 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds are expected to return to their pre - adjustment levels of 1.65% and 1.85% respectively [7][19].