Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent's September contract up 0.98%. The market is focused on the resurgent risk of sanctioned oil. Geopolitical risks are providing short - term support to oil prices, and investors can consider the hedging value of out - of - the - money call options on crude oil [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, the US second - quarter GDP annualized rate rebounded to 3% more than expected, and ADP employment increased by 104,000, also exceeding expectations. The US dollar rebounded after the data release, and precious metals declined. With reduced economic recession risks and cooling risk - aversion sentiment, precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust [2]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices fell. Trump excluded steel imports from additional tariffs but targeted copper products. The US dollar's strength, due to good GDP data and stable private - sector employment, is suppressing copper prices. The market is waiting for the implementation of specific US tariff agreements. Short positions can be held against integer - level resistance [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. In the off - season, demand decline is evident, with inventory accumulation and a significant drop in apparent consumption. The upper resistance level is at 21,000 yuan [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has a tight supply, and the alloy's profit is negative, putting short - term pressure on prices. However, it has some resilience in the medium term compared to aluminum prices [5]. Alumina - Recently, alumina prices have risen significantly, with industry profits recovering. The total inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. Align short positions against the recent high of 3,500 yuan [6]. Zinc - The market is waiting for the results of China - US tariff negotiations. Downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low. There is room to short mine profits on the futures market. In the short term, wait for an opportunity to short above 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - Lead prices are consolidating. The downstream battery industry's consumption has not improved significantly. Although there is strong cost support, there is a lack of consumption - driven upward momentum. Hold long positions against 16,800 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is fluctuating, with active trading. The hype of the "anti - involution" theme has cooled, and nickel may return to its fundamentals. The inventory of nickel iron has decreased, while that of pure nickel has increased. Short on rebounds [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and then fluctuated significantly. The spot market has become more active, and the total inventory is rising. Technically, the futures price has returned to a reasonable range. Try short - term long positions with a light position [10]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, mainly driven by the sentiment in the polysilicon market. Its own fundamentals are still weak. The exchange will implement position limits on August 1st, so beware of potential price corrections [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rose sharply yesterday. Although the news of capacity storage has been clarified, the sentiment is still strong, and the growth of warehouse receipts is slower than expected. The exchange's position limit on August 1st may lead to a price correction [12]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - session steel prices continued to fall. Rebar demand showed a slight recovery, while hot - rolled coil demand declined. Low inventory and rising costs provide some support to steel prices. The market is volatile, and pay attention to overall market trends [13]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures fluctuated overnight. Supply is slightly affected by seasonal factors, and demand is stable with high iron - water production. The market is expected to be range - bound [14]. Coke - Coke prices rose during the day and then fell back. The fifth round of price increases by coking plants has a thin profit margin. Inventory is decreasing slightly, and the downward space is limited [15]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices also rose and then fell, with high volatility. The total inventory has increased, and the production - end inventory is decreasing. The positive impact of policies may support prices, and the downward space is limited [16]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose and then fell. The expected long - term accumulation of manganese ore inventory has improved. In the short term, prices are likely to continue rising under the influence of the "anti - involution" theme [17]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices followed a similar pattern. Demand is generally stable, and supply has increased slightly. It is likely to rise in the short term, following the trend of silicomanganese [18]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Freight Index (European Line) - Spot freight rates are weakening, with some airlines reducing prices. The expected increase in US - bound shipments may have limited impact on European - line rates. Weather - related port disruptions are short - term [19]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil is leading the rise in oil - related futures. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the crack spread is likely to be range - bound and weak [20]. Asphalt - In August, domestic asphalt production is expected to decline. Demand is weak, and inventory de - stocking is slowing down. The price will follow the trend of crude oil, but the upside is limited [21]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Traders are cautious due to the possible further decline of the end - of - month CP. The domestic market is under pressure, and the price is likely to remain low [22]. Group 4: Chemicals Urea - Local agricultural demand for urea is ending, and the demand from compound - fertilizer enterprises is expected to increase. Exports are facing congestion, and production enterprises are accumulating inventory. The price is likely to trade in a range in the short term [23]. Methanol - Methanol prices fell slightly overnight. Coastal MTO plant operations are not high, and port inventory is seasonally increasing. Domestic supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. The price is likely to fluctuate in a range [24]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices rebounded slightly. Weekly supply and demand both decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. In the third - quarter later stage, there is an expectation of improved supply - demand, but it will face pressure in the fourth quarter. Consider trading monthly spreads [25]. Styrene - Styrene futures are consolidating. The rising oil price supports the cost, but supply is high, and demand is weak, so the price is under pressure [26]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - For propylene, downstream plant maintenance in Shandong and new capacity release are causing supply - demand imbalances. For polyethylene, supply pressure is increasing, and demand is gradually recovering. For polypropylene, demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices are falling as sentiment cools. Supply is decreasing due to enterprise maintenance, and demand is in the off - season. The long - term price increase is limited. Caustic soda is weak, with increasing inventory and long - term supply pressure [28]. PX and PTA - Rising oil prices are expected to support PX and PTA costs. PTA is still accumulating inventory, and the processing margin and basis are weakening. The mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it depends on downstream demand recovery [29]. Ethylene Glycol - Downstream demand for ethylene glycol is stable. Port inventory is fluctuating at a low level. In the short term, the strong oil price is a positive factor, but the market may face supply changes [30]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Chip - Short - fiber and bottle - grade chip prices follow the raw - material price. Short - fiber processing margins are falling, and demand is in the off - season. In the medium term, consider long positions. Bottle - grade chips have a stable inventory but face long - term over - capacity pressure [31]. Group 5: Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are falling as sentiment fades. Industry profits are slightly recovering, and processing orders are weak. Without a reduction in supply, significant price increases are unlikely [32]. Group 6: Rubber 20 - Standard Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International trade risks are rising, and natural rubber supply is entering the high - production season. Demand from the tire industry is weak, and inventory is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [33]. Group 7: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The Fed maintained interest rates, and China - US trade negotiations may extend the tariff suspension for 90 days. US soybean growing conditions are good, with a high excellent - rate. The market is waiting for weather changes and is likely to trade in a range [35]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US soybean oil is consolidating. The high oil - meal ratio in the US market may support domestic vegetable - oil prices. Consider long positions on dips for soybean oil and palm oil, and pay attention to weather and policies [36]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell overnight. Domestic rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventories are declining. Due to uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the prices are likely to trade in a range at high levels [37]. Soybean No. 1 - Soybean No. 1 prices fell overnight. China - US trade negotiations may extend the tariff suspension. Pay attention to weather in the Northeast and US soy - growing regions [38]. Corn - Corn futures are trading in a range. US corn growing conditions are good. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. Live Hogs - Live - hog futures are falling, and the spot price is stable. With sufficient medium - term supply and cooling policy - driven sentiment, futures prices are likely to decline further. Industries are advised to hedge on rallies [40]. Eggs - Egg spot prices are mostly stable, with some local declines. August - contract prices are falling, and off - season contracts are weak. Monitor whether the spot price can rise seasonally [41]. Cotton - US cotton prices are falling, and Brazilian cotton harvesting is slow. Zhengzhou cotton is consolidating at a high level. Pay attention to the details of China - US trade negotiations [42]. Sugar - US sugar prices are oscillating. Brazilian production expectations are negative, and there is uncertainty about China's 25/26 sugar - production due to weather. Sugar prices are likely to trade in a range [43]. Apples - Apple futures prices are fluctuating. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, with higher prices. The market is focused on new - season production estimates, which are still uncertain [44]. Timber - Timber prices are fluctuating. Demand is good in the off - season, and inventory is low. As the peak season approaches, prices are likely to rise, and a long - position strategy is recommended [45]. Pulp - Pulp prices are falling. Port inventory is high, and demand is weak. The market is likely to return to low - level consolidation [46]. Group 8: Financial Instruments Stock Index - A - share markets fluctuated sharply yesterday, with trading volume increasing. The Fed's decision and Trump's tariff policies have affected market sentiment. The domestic equity market has a positive capital - flow sentiment. Continue to increase allocations to technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - valued consumer sectors [47]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury - bond futures rose across the board. The Politburo meeting indicates a policy - implementation phase. In the short term, futures prices may recover, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [48].
综合晨报-20250731
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-31 03:20