碳酸锂日评20250731：情绪切换速度快、波动大-20250731

Report Summary 1. Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20250731: Rapid Mood Swings and High Volatility [2] 2. Core View - On July 30, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures rose and then fell. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium increased. With the cost side showing a decline in spodumene concentrate prices but flat mica prices, supply side seeing a decrease in carbonate lithium production last week, and downstream demand showing mixed trends (rising production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, falling production of cobalt acid lithium and manganese acid lithium in June, and rising power battery production last week). Terminal demand had continued year - on - year growth in new energy vehicle production and sales in June but a month - on - month decline in sales, and average 3C shipments. Storage battery production increased in June. With inventory showing compact registered warehouse receipts, destocking in smelters, and inventory accumulation in other sectors. Due to large fluctuations in commodity sentiment and exchange position limits cooling the market, short - term carbonate lithium prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to hold put options [3] 3. Key Data 3.1 Futures Data - Closing Prices: Near - month contract closed at 70,260 yuan/ton (-200 from the previous day), continuous - one contract at 70,600 yuan/ton (-240), continuous - two contract at 70,580 yuan/ton (+20), continuous - three contract at 70,580 yuan/ton (+20) [3] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Active contract trading volume was 792,909 lots (+48,749), and open interest was 272,753 lots (-27,867) [3] - Warehouse Inventory: 12,276 tons (unchanged) [3] - Spreads: Near - month minus continuous - one was -340 yuan/ton (+40), continuous - one minus continuous - two was 20 yuan/ton (-260), continuous - two minus continuous - three was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [3] - Basis: SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium average price minus carbonate lithium active contract closing price was 2,350 yuan/ton (+40) [3] 3.2 Spot Data - Lithium Ore Prices: Spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 776 US dollars/ton (-1), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,140 yuan/ton (unchanged), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan/ton (unchanged), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,675 yuan/ton (+75), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,625 yuan/ton (+125) [3] - Lithium Compound Prices: Battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%, domestic) was 72,950 yuan/ton (-200), industrial - grade carbonate lithium (99.2%, domestic) was 70,850 yuan/ton (-150), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, CIF China, Japan, South Korea) was 8.28 US dollars/kg (unchanged), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, domestic, coarse particles) was 65,470 yuan/ton (+50), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, domestic, fine powder) was 70,620 yuan/ton (+50) [3] - Price Spreads: Battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade carbonate lithium spread was -7,480 yuan/ton (+250), battery - grade carbonate lithium and industrial - grade carbonate lithium spread was 2,100 yuan/ton (-50), CIF China, Japan, South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide spread was -6,316.85 yuan/ton (-107.96) [3] 3.3 Inventory Data - SMM Carbonate Lithium Inventory: Smelters had 55,385 tons (-2,654 compared to the previous week), downstream had 42,815 tons (+1,544), others had 44,970 tons (+1,660), and the total was 143,170 tons (+550) [3] 4. Industry News - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with directors Waller and Bowman voting against and advocating for a rate cut [3] - On July 30, Pilbara Minerals announced its lithium spodumene concentrate production in the fourth fiscal quarter was 221,300 tons, and sales volume reached 216,000 tons, showing stable performance in lithium ore production and market supply [3] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange limited the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or clients in the carbonate lithium futures LC2509 contract to no more than 500 lots, and in LC2510, LC2511, LC2512, LC2601 contracts to no more than 2,000 lots each [3]