美国?季度GDP增速超预期，中国经济展现活?和韧性，能化延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry. However, the outlook suggests that the energy and chemical sector will continue to fluctuate, and some chemical products with high inventories may face pressure and are suitable for short - allocation [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US second - quarter GDP growth rate exceeded expectations, and the Chinese economy showed vitality and resilience. The energy and chemical sector continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors and economic data influenced the prices of energy and chemical products. The high - level meeting in China indicated good economic indicators, which may reduce the possibility of introducing economic stimulus policies, dragging down the demand side of commodities and energy chemicals to some extent [1][2]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Geopolitical support continued, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - Main Logic: The US imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil, and concerns about Trump's possible increased sanctions on Russia continued. Geopolitical factors drove oil prices. High refinery operations in China and the US and strong margins provided support, but OPEC + was in a period of rapid production increase, and supply pressure was still present. - Outlook: The strong reality dominated by high refinery operations at home and abroad and the weak expectation dominated by supply pressure balanced each other, and oil prices fluctuated. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [9]. 3.2 LPG - Viewpoint: The support from the cost side weakened, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remained loose, and the PG futures market might fluctuate weakly [2]. 3.3 Asphalt - Viewpoint: As crude oil prices rose, it was a good time for short - sellers of asphalt to enter the market. - Main Logic: Crude oil price rebounds drove asphalt price increases. The spot market of asphalt was stronger in the north than in the south, and the futures market might shift from Shandong - based pricing to East and South China - based pricing. The demand side was weak, and the valuation of asphalt was relatively high. - Outlook: The absolute price of asphalt was over - valued, and the monthly spread of asphalt might decline as the number of warehouse receipts increased [11]. 3.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: High - sulfur fuel oil rebounded following crude oil. - Main Logic: OPEC + continued to increase production, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation was affected. The supply of heavy oil increased, and the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil were weakening. - Outlook: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil was expected to increase and demand to decrease. Geopolitical upgrades would only cause short - term price fluctuations, and high - sulfur fuel oil would fluctuate weakly [12]. 3.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures rebounded following crude oil. - Main Logic: It followed the trend of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread increased, low - sulfur fuel oil faced negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel oil substitution. The supply was expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it would maintain a low - valuation operation. - Outlook: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited demand for high - sulfur fuel oil substitution, but with a low current valuation, it would fluctuate following crude oil [13]. 3.6 PX - Viewpoint: It returned to the fundamental pricing logic, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations. - Main Logic: The impact of commodity sentiment subsided, and the market returned to fundamental pricing. Many PX plants were scheduled to restart in August, and new PTA plants were put into operation, so the supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and there was limited upward or downward space. - Outlook: It would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of US secondary sanctions on Russia on oil prices [14]. 3.7 PTA - Viewpoint: New plants were put into operation, and the repair of processing fees was blocked. - Main Logic: The supply and demand of PTA both increased, but the marginal supply - demand relationship was still weak, and the repair of processing fees was blocked. The price would follow the cost of upstream products, and the processing fees might improve after large - scale plant maintenance in early August. - Outlook: It would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of large - scale plant maintenance at the beginning of August [15]. 3.8 Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: As crude oil rebounded, the price of pure benzene increased slightly. - Main Logic: The price of pure benzene increased slightly following the rebound of crude oil. The fundamental situation of pure benzene improved in the third quarter, but the rebound was limited by inventory pressure. - Outlook: It would fluctuate [16]. 3.9 Styrene - Viewpoint: The commodity sentiment cooled down, while crude oil prices broke through. Styrene fluctuated within a narrow range. - Main Logic: The fundamental situation of pure benzene improved, but it did not strongly support styrene. Styrene's own supply - demand was expected to weaken, and port inventories were accumulating. - Outlook: Although styrene inventories at ports were increasing recently, the inventories of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain were not high. If the macro - sentiment continued to improve, there might be inventory replenishment in the industry chain, which could support the market. Attention should be paid to changes in commodity sentiment [19]. 3.10 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Viewpoint: The fundamental driving force was limited, and typhoons affected the arrival rhythm of goods. - Main Logic: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol changed little. Although the demand increased slightly due to the rising polyester load, the supply was expected to increase in August, and the market was in a wide - balance state. Typhoons affected port inventories, but there was still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the medium term. - Outlook: There was an expectation of an inventory inflection point [20]. 3.11 Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: It followed the trend passively. - Main Logic: Under the fluctuating raw material prices, the supply - demand of short - fiber changed little, and it mainly followed the upstream products. The downstream sales were still not good. - Outlook: The processing fees of short - fiber would remain stable, and the absolute price would follow the raw materials [22]. 3.12 Bottle - Chip - Viewpoint: It returned to the cost - pricing model. - Main Logic: With the fluctuating upstream polyester raw materials, the price of bottle - chip was mainly determined by cost, and its own supply - demand changed little, and the processing fees were weak. - Outlook: The processing fees of bottle - chip had support at the bottom, and the absolute price would follow the raw materials [23]. 3.13 PP - Viewpoint: There was still some macro - support, and PP fluctuated. - Main Logic: Short - term oil price increases and positive signals from the macro - level provided support, but the supply side was expected to increase, and the demand side was weak. - Outlook: PP would fluctuate in the short term [31]. 3.14 Propylene - Viewpoint: It mainly followed the fluctuations, and PL might fluctuate in the short term. - Main Logic: The spot supply of propylene was abundant, and the enterprise inventory was controllable. The market followed the fluctuations of PP and methanol. Due to the new product listing and far - month contracts, the influence of spot was limited, and the market might fluctuate at a relatively high level. - Outlook: PL would fluctuate in the short term [32]. 3.15 Plastic - Viewpoint: As oil prices strengthened, plastic fluctuated. - Main Logic: Oil price increases, macro - uncertainties, and the pressure on the supply side and weak demand side of plastic itself affected the market. - Outlook: The short - term oil price increase and macro - uncertainties led to short - term fluctuations in the plastic 09 contract [30]. 3.16 PVC - Viewpoint: The policy expectation cooled down, and PVC mainly fluctuated. - Main Logic: There were no unexpected policies in the high - level meeting, and the market sentiment cooled down. The fundamental situation of PVC was under pressure, with increasing production, weak downstream demand, and an expected increase in costs. - Outlook: The market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price declined [35]. 3.17 Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: Supported by low inventories in Shandong, caustic soda fluctuated. - Main Logic: The market sentiment cooled down. The demand for caustic soda from the alumina industry increased marginally, but the overall supply was high. There was a balance between low inventories in Shandong and cost support. - Outlook: The policy expectation cooled down, and there was pressure from near - month warehouse receipts. The downward space of caustic soda was limited [35]. 3.18 Methanol - Viewpoint: Port inventories were accumulating, and methanol fluctuated. - Main Logic: The futures price of methanol fluctuated. Port inventories increased, and the actual impact of policies was limited. The production profit was relatively high, and there was still a negative feedback expectation in the downstream olefin industry. - Outlook: It would fluctuate in the short term [26]. 3.19 Urea - Viewpoint: The supply was strong and the demand was weak. The sentiment was temporarily boosted, and exports supported the market. Urea fluctuated in the short term. - Main Logic: The spot price increased, but the fundamental situation of supply - demand remained unchanged, with strong supply and weak demand. The market was expected to fluctuate due to the influence of coal policies. - Outlook: In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental support was limited. The market sentiment temporarily boosted the price, and the futures price of urea would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the development after the market returned to fundamentals [26]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring 4.1 Inter - Period Spread - The report provided the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various energy and chemical products, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data reflected the price differences between different delivery months of each variety [37]. 4.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The report presented the basis and the number of warehouse receipts for each variety, such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, PX, etc., which were important indicators for analyzing the relationship between the spot and futures markets [38]. 4.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The report showed the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and 3MA, TA and EG, etc., which helped to understand the relative price relationships between different energy and chemical products [39].