“反内卷”预期暂降温，??价格回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for most black and building materials is "oscillating" [8][10][11][13][14][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" expectation has temporarily cooled down, and black prices have declined. Although the tone of the important meeting is positive, it falls short of the market's overly enthusiastic expectations. However, there is a possibility that subsequent meetings or policies may bring new benefits. The current driving force lies in the replenishment of the intermediate links. The mid - stream has a good mentality, is not eager to sell, and the spot prices are relatively firm. In the short term, it is advisable to take a low - buying approach, but there is a risk of a decline when the trading focus returns to the fundamentals in the peak season [1][2] - The overall black market has limited fundamental changes, and the macro - level benefits are not exhausted. It is recommended to wait and see to avoid risks. The subsequent focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - From the fundamental perspective, the overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased, which is in line with expectations. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output of steel enterprises has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for ore. Due to low arrivals and high demand, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports has slightly decreased. The fundamental negative driving factors for iron ore are limited, and the price is oscillating. If the market sentiment heats up again, the price may oscillate upwards [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - There are still production disturbances in the production areas, and the supply is still restricted, with the overall supply slowly recovering. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal in recent days has been over a thousand vehicles, maintaining a high level. The fourth round of coke price increases has been fully implemented, and the profits of coke enterprises have improved, but some enterprises are still in a loss state. Coke enterprises in the production areas have initiated the fifth round of price increases. Affected by environmental protection, maintenance and other reasons, the coke supply is still disturbed. Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively replenishing inventory. Affected by the recent slowdown in the futures market, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream and traders has increased, and the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and the impact of news - based stimuli is significantly stronger than the actual fundamental situation. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate greatly in the short term [3] 3.3 Alloys 3.3.1 Manganese Silicon - The continuous increase in coke prices has continuously strengthened the cost support for manganese silicon. The increase in the outer - market quotation and the strengthening of the manganese silicon futures price have made manganese ore traders less willing to sell at low prices, and the port ore prices have remained stable for the time being. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished steel remains high. The downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, in an environment of profit recovery, the resumption of production by manufacturers is continuously advancing, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Currently, the contradictions in the spot fundamentals are limited, and it is expected that the manganese silicon price will follow the performance of the sector and oscillate in the short term [3][7] 3.3.2 Ferrosilicon - The output of ferrosilicon is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand remains resilient, and the current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. It is expected that the price will follow the performance of the sector and oscillate in the short term [7] 3.4 Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass has declined, the deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass have increased month - on - month, indicating downstream speculative purchases. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down, the mid - stream has sold goods, and the production and sales of the upstream have significantly declined. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line has been cold - repaired. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and its own contradictions are not prominent, but there are many market sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. The "anti - involution" sentiment may still fluctuate. It is expected that the futures and spot prices will oscillate widely in the short term [7] 3.5 Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply pattern of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the warming of the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures market. After the positive feedback, the inventory for positive arbitrage has been locked, and the delivery pressure is relatively large. It is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but the long - term price center will still decline [7] 3.6 Specific Product Analysis 3.6.1 Steel - The Politburo meeting emphasized the governance of disorderly competition among enterprises and the acceleration of the issuance and use of government bonds in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the introduction of policies around supply - side adjustment and the boost to the demand for steel in infrastructure construction from the accelerated issuance of bonds. The suspension period of the 24% tax rate, which was originally scheduled to end in mid - August, may be further extended, and exports are expected to remain resilient. As the parade date approaches, there are continuous news of steel mill production restrictions in various places, and the actual implementation effect needs to be tracked. The spot steel transactions in the East China region are generally weak. Last week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory decreased month - on - month; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory slightly increased; the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and the inventory slightly decreased. The inventory is at a relatively low level in previous years, and the fundamental contradictions in the off - season are not obvious. The steel inventory is low, the fundamental pressure is limited, there is a possibility of production restrictions before the parade, and the fundamentals may improve before the peak season. The short - term futures market has strong support. The subsequent focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [10] 3.6.2 Iron Ore - The port transactions were 96.2 (- 10.2) tons. The main contract of the swap was 101.71 (- 1.03) US dollars/ton, PB powder was 772 (- 8) yuan/ton, and Brazilian mixed ore was 799 (- 4) yuan/ton, equivalent to 821 yuan/ton on the futures market. The basis of Brazilian mixed ore for the 09 contract was 32 yuan/ton, 01 contract was 55 yuan/ton, and 05 contract was 76 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás fines and PB powder was 102 (+ 7) yuan/ton, the price difference between PB powder and Super Special powder was 130 (0) yuan/ton, and the price difference between PB powder and Brazilian mixed ore was - 27 (- 4) yuan/ton. The spot market quotes fell by 5 - 10 yuan/ton yesterday, and the port transactions decreased. The iron ore demand is at a high level, the supply is stable, the fundamental negative driving factors are limited, and the price is oscillating. If the market sentiment heats up again, the price may oscillate upwards [10] 3.6.3 Scrap Steel - The average tax - free price of crushed scrap in East China is 2156 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and the price difference between rebar and scrap in East China is 1177 (+ 9) yuan/ton. The rebar production has increased this week, the inventory has decreased, and the apparent demand has increased, with good fundamentals. In terms of scrap steel supply, the arrival volume has increased significantly this week. In terms of demand, the valley - electricity profit of electric furnaces has improved, and the profit in some areas is substantial. The daily consumption of electric furnaces has increased again; the molten iron output of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, the price difference between iron and scrap has narrowed, the cost - performance of scrap steel has increased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process steelmaking has increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in long - and short - process steelmaking has increased. In terms of inventory, the arrival volume has decreased month - on - month this week, but the daily consumption has increased, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased. The scrap steel demand is at a high level, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and it is expected that the price will follow the finished steel [11] 3.6.4 Coke - On the futures side, coke fluctuates widely following coking coal; on the spot side, the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1420 yuan/ton (+ 30), and the basis of the 09 contract at the port is - 150 yuan/ton (- 11). On the supply side, the fourth round of price increases has been fully implemented, and the profits of coke enterprises have improved, but some enterprises are still in a loss state. Coke enterprises in the production areas have initiated the fifth round of price increases. Affected by environmental protection, maintenance and other reasons, the coke supply is still disturbed. On the demand side, the molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a high level, and the rigid demand still exists. Downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. At the same time, futures - spot traders are actively diverting the supply, and the coke inventory of coke enterprises is continuously decreasing. Currently, the coke supply - demand structure is relatively tight, and with cost support, the price increase of coke has significantly accelerated. The coke fundamentals are relatively healthy, and the futures market mainly follows the fluctuations of coking coal. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate widely in the short term [11][13] 3.6.5 Coking Coal - On the futures side, after the Politburo meeting yesterday, the market sentiment soared and then declined, but there is still some support from policy expectations; on the spot side, the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Jiexiu is 1170 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1150 yuan/ton (+ 0). On the supply side, there are still production disturbances in the production areas, the supply is still restricted, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. On the import side, the average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal in recent days has been over a thousand vehicles, maintaining a high level. On the demand side, the coke output is temporarily stable, the rigid demand for coking coal is strong, and the upstream coal mines are continuously reducing inventory. Affected by the recent slowdown in the futures market, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream and traders has increased, and the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine resumption of production, and Mongolian coal imports in the future. Currently, the impact of news - based stimuli is significantly stronger than the actual fundamental situation. Driven by macro - policies, the sentiment is constantly changing. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate greatly in the short term [14] 3.6.6 Glass - The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1250 yuan/ton (0), in Central China is 1230 yuan/ton (0), and the national average price is 1236 yuan/ton (0). The Politburo meeting's statement on the real estate sector is relatively weak, only retaining urban renewal, and the "anti - involution" statement has not been further strengthened, with a neutral macro - environment. In the off - season, the demand has declined, the deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass have increased month - on - month, indicating downstream speculative purchases. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down, the mid - stream has sold goods, and the production and sales of the upstream have significantly declined. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line has been cold - repaired. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and its own contradictions are not prominent, but there are many market sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. The "anti - involution" sentiment may still fluctuate. It is expected that the futures and spot prices will oscillate widely in the short term. The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectations are strong, and the speculative demand is strong. In the short term, it is necessary to wait and see the rhythm and intensity of policy introduction. If the policies continue to exceed expectations, the downstream expectations may improve, and there may be a wave of inventory - replenishment price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downwards [14] 3.6.7 Soda Ash - The delivered price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1301 yuan/ton (- 2). The Politburo meeting's statement on the "anti - involution" issue has not been further strengthened, with a neutral macro - environment. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, the long - term suppression still exists, the output is at a high level, and the supply pressure still exists. Some manufacturers' output has returned today, and it is expected that the output will continue to increase in the future. On the demand side, heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid - demand procurement. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has been continuously declining, falling below 90,000 tons this week, with the current daily melting volume at 89,800 tons, and the demand for heavy soda ash is weakening. On the light soda ash side, the downstream procurement has recovered, but the overall downstream demand is poor, mainly for periodic inventory replenishment. Sentiment affects the futures market. The long - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. In the short term, the warming of the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures market. After the positive feedback, the mid - stream inventory is high, and most of it is locked in the futures market, with relatively large delivery pressure. The oversupply pattern has not changed. There are planned maintenance in July. With the support of the "anti - involution" sentiment, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [15] 3.6.8 Manganese Silicon - Yesterday, the black - chain varieties had a high - level correction, and the manganese silicon futures price opened high and closed low. On the spot side, manufacturers' quotes remain firm, but downstream procurement is still cautious, and high - level transactions need to be followed up. Currently, the ex - factory price of 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5800 yuan/ton (0), and the price of 45.0% Australian manganese ore blocks at Tianjin Port is 41 yuan/ton - degree (+ 1). On the cost side, the continuous increase in coke prices has continuously strengthened the cost support for manganese silicon. The increase in the outer - market quotation and the strengthening of the manganese silicon futures price have made manganese ore traders less willing to sell at low prices, and the port ore prices have continued to rise. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished steel remains high. A new round of steel procurement has started, and the downstream demand has been concentratedly released. However, in an environment of profit recovery, the resumption of production by manufacturers is continuously advancing, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the policy trends regarding specific production - restriction policy requirements. Currently, the contradictions in the spot fundamentals are limited. It is expected that the manganese silicon price will follow the performance of the sector and oscillate in the short term. In the future, the difficulty of market inventory reduction will increase, and the upside space of the price in the medium - to - long term should be viewed with caution [16] 3.6.9 Ferrosilicon - Recently, the futures price has been frequently affected by news and sentiment. Yesterday, the sentiment in the black market cooled down, and the ferrosilicon futures price opened higher with a gap and then trended weakly. On the spot side, manufacturers' supplies are tight, and quotes are relatively firm. It is difficult to find low - price supplies in the market. Currently, the price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in Ningxia is 5700 yuan/ton (+ 150), and the price of 99.9% magnesium ingots in Fugu is 17150 yuan/ton (+ 50). On the supply side, the industry profit has significantly improved, and manufacturers' enthusiasm for resuming production has increased. The output of ferrosilicon is expected to increase rapidly. On the demand side, the steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The steel procurement in August has started, and the downstream demand has been concentratedly released. In the metal magnesium market, the inquiry and trading