美关税政策再调整引爆comex铜价，LME和SHFE以不变应万变

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the news on Shanghai copper is limited, and COMEX copper will move towards the price before the tariff increase [3] - In the short term, the spread between COMEX copper and LME and SHFE copper will still fluctuate, and the market needs 1 - 2 trading days to determine a reasonable spread range [7] - The price of Shanghai copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and its price trend depends on global macro - market policies and expected changes [7] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Contents Tariff Policy and Copper Price Changes - Trump announced that starting this Friday, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on copper tubes, copper fittings, and other semi - finished copper products, and it will be extended to copper - intensive finished products such as cables and electrical components, but core upstream products like electrolytic copper are excluded [1] - Before the news, the US copper price was up to 28% higher than the London copper futures due to market expectations. After the news, the COMEX copper price in the US dropped by over 17%, and the spread with LME copper was quickly narrowed [1] Fed's Action and Copper Price - The slight decline in Shanghai copper price on Wednesday night was mainly due to the rise of the US dollar index, which was mostly caused by the Fed's actions. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July, with some members in favor of a rate cut. The description of economic activity was changed, and the market's expectation of a September rate cut was dampened [3] Reasons for COMEX Copper Price Drop - The cancellation of the US refined copper import tariff led to the expected decline in COMEX copper price. The US imports nearly half of its about 160 million tons of annual refined copper consumption due to insufficient smelting capacity. The characteristics of the copper smelting industry conflict with the goals of large US capital companies, which is also an obstacle to Trump's encouragement of manufacturing return [6] - Due to the long - term speculation on copper tariffs, the COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, almost twice that of LME. After the tariff policy change, the large amount of copper in the US cannot be digested in the short term, resulting in a large decline in COMEX copper price [6] Future Outlook - The high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, and the quantity of imported copper in transit and in the fourth quarter in the US may be greatly affected [7] - Global tariff policies' impact on demand may cast a shadow over copper prices [7]