议息会议表述偏鹰，贵?属短线下挫

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal divisions persisting. Powell's remarks were seen as hawkish, reducing the probability of a September rate cut, leading to declines in US stocks and gold, and significant rebounds in the US dollar and Treasury yields. The US economic growth slowdown in the first half was removed from the statement, and no signal of a September rate cut was given. The US Q2 GDP data rebounded more than expected, but the growth center has shifted down overall. Tariffs are becoming a slow - moving variable, and the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in late August is important. The medium - and long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Refined copper being excluded from tariffs and the cooling of the anti - involution sentiment in China dragged down silver, which is expected to follow gold in a weak oscillation in the short term [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Focus on Information - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, and Powell said it was too early to determine a September rate cut [2] - The initial annualized Q2 real GDP in the US increased by 3% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding the expected 2.4%. The initial quarter - on - quarter increase in real personal consumption expenditure was 1.4%, slightly lower than the expected 1.5%. The initial annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3% [2] - The number of ADP employed people in the US in July increased by 104,000, exceeding the estimate of 75,000 [2] - The US Treasury plans to set the quarterly refinancing bond issuance at $125 billion, in line with expectations, and expects bond issuance to remain stable for at least the next few quarters [2] - Trump said India will pay a 25% tariff and a fine related to purchasing Russian military equipment and energy starting from August 1 [2] Price Logic - The Fed's inaction in the interest - rate meeting, combined with the hawkish remarks, led to market reactions. The Q2 GDP data showed a significant impact from tariffs, and the growth center has shifted down. The main contract of COMEX gold changed to 2512, causing price - spread fluctuations. The support level of spot gold at 3250 should be watched. The exclusion of refined copper from tariffs and the cooling of anti - involution sentiment in China dragged down silver [3] Outlook - The weekly range of London Gold Spot is expected to be between 3250 and 3450, and that of London Silver Spot is expected to be between 36 and 40 [6]