宏观深度报告20250731：债券ETF还能走多远？

Core Insights - The report highlights that despite the inherent advantages of active management strategies in bond funds, the future growth of index bond funds, particularly bond index ETFs, is expected to be significant, with a particular focus on credit bond index ETFs and equity-linked ETFs [4][49]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - From a performance perspective, the "Shanghai Market Company Bond" index yielded 0.58% from June 3, 2025, to July 29, 2025, outperforming the benchmark B index, which returned 0.39% during the same period [2][38]. - In terms of liquidity, during a period of rising government bond yields, the average turnover rate for component bonds was 0.61%, compared to 0.95% for non-component bonds, indicating a relative decline in liquidity for non-component bonds [2][38]. Group 2: ETF Advantages - The report suggests that there is significant room for growth in the proportion of ETFs within domestic index bond funds, as only 7.8% of index bond funds are ETFs, with a net asset value share of 31.7% as of July 2025 [20][23]. - The improvement in liquidity for credit bonds through ETFs is notable, and there is a recommendation to expand the range of tracked indices to create more distinctive credit bond index tracking products [31][38]. Group 3: Innovative Products - The report discusses the potential for innovative equity-linked bonds and related ETFs, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment where investors seek stable returns [3][39]. - The concept of "automatic redemption bonds," which provide returns linked to stock indices while offering capital protection under certain conditions, is highlighted as a product that could gain traction in the domestic market [3][41][49].