尿素周报2025、7、18：关注出口变化-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on urea is neutral. In terms of supply, summer maintenance has increased, leading to a decline in production; export profits are high, but export quotas have not been significantly relaxed. For demand, the autumn pre - sales of compound fertilizers have started, with a slow increase in the operating rate, and industrial demand is lukewarm. In the short term, domestic driving factors are not obvious, and attention should be paid to changes in export policies [4]. - The view on the month - spread is neutral to bullish. Opportunities for the month - spread to strengthen due to export boosts can continue to be monitored [4]. - The view on policies is neutral. There are market rumors about an increase in the export guidance price and the release of a new round of export quotas, but there is no definite news of a significant relaxation of exports [4]. - The view on the spot market is neutral. The operating rate of compound fertilizers is slowly increasing, but enterprise orders are stable, and trading is lukewarm [4]. - The view on inventory is neutral. Enterprise inventories continue to decline, while port inventories continue to rise. Some enterprise inventories are transferred to ports, and export demand supports the current urea price [4]. - The view on exports is neutral to bullish. International prices continue to rise, further increasing potential export profits. In June, urea exports reached 70,000 tons. Based on the significantly increased port inventories, export volumes may further increase. There are rumors that the second - batch export quotas have been released, but the export volume is still limited [4]. - The view on demand is neutral. Compound fertilizer enterprises are advancing autumn fertilizer orders as needed, with a slow increase in the operating rate. The demand for melamine is weak, and the operating rate may remain low. Domestic demand lacks imagination [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price Slightly Stabilized - Domestic agricultural demand is in the off - season. Although compound fertilizers have started autumn fertilizer production, the operating rate is rising slowly. There are market rumors that the pricing of the second - batch export quotas is high, resulting in fewer transactions of small and medium - sized particles and hindering small - package urea exports. Overall demand has not significantly increased, and enterprise sales are lukewarm [12]. - The export profit has further expanded. There are rumors that the second - batch quotas have been issued, and the export volume may increase [33]. Operating Rate May Remain High - Coal - based profits are still good. Summer maintenance has begun, causing the operating rate to decline, but it remains at a high level in recent years. According to Longzhong Information, some enterprises are under maintenance this period, and some are resuming production. Next week, one enterprise plans to shut down, and 4 - 5 shut - down enterprises' devices may resume production. The operating rate may slightly rebound, and supply pressure still exists [39]. Enterprises Continue to Reduce Inventory, and Port Aggregation Increases - This week, enterprise inventories continued to decline slightly. Low - price order receipts improved, but new order transactions were limited. Port inventories continued to rise, with large - particle goods arriving at Yantai Port and small - particle goods arriving at Rizhao, Tianjin, Zhenjiang, and Lianyungang Ports, while other ports showed no obvious changes [51]. Urea Profits Support High Operating Rates - Although coal prices have stabilized, they lack the basis for a continuous rebound. Coal - based urea still maintains high profits [60]. - As urea prices fluctuate at a low level, the profit of gas - based urea has almost disappeared [70]. Export Expectations May Improve - In June 2025, China exported a total of 4.29 million tons of various fertilizers, including 70,000 tons of urea, 1.86 million tons of ammonium sulfate, 510,000 tons of diammonium phosphate, and 170,000 tons of monoammonium phosphate. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative export of various fertilizers was 17.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.9%; the cumulative export amount was 4.069 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 25.9% [75]. Demand is Lukewarm - This week, the atmosphere in the compound fertilizer market has improved. The prices of raw materials, led by potash fertilizer, have risen. Autumn fertilizer pre - sales have started, and the market is oscillating strongly. The operating rate is slowly increasing. The prices of upstream synthetic ammonia are oscillating at a low level, while the prices of phosphate ammonium and potash fertilizer have risen. Urea prices remain range - bound. Currently, the sales of autumn fertilizers are the same as in previous years. In the short term, the supply and demand of compound fertilizers are stable, and price fluctuations are limited [85][91]. - The downstream demand for melamine is weak, and some panel factories have shut down for holidays. However, since the price is close to the cost, the downward space is also limited. Some large - scale devices in Sichuan and Xinjiang have resumed, and some devices in Xinjiang and Shandong are expected to resume next week. The operating rate of melamine may slightly increase [99][103]. Coal is Weak, and Gas is Strong - Recently, coal consumption has entered the peak season. High temperatures in many places have increased the power load, and coal demand has increased, leading to a stable rebound in prices. However, due to the increase in new - energy power generation squeezing thermal power demand and the high inventory of power plants, overall, coal prices lack the power for continuous upward movement [130]. - Synthetic ammonia shows a differentiated trend of falling in the north and rising in the south. In the northern market, supply has increased due to the resumption of maintenance enterprises, but demand has not increased, putting pressure on prices. In the southern market, affected by the increase in the operating rate of downstream phosphate fertilizer enterprises, low - price enterprises have started to raise their quotes [138]. Futures and Spot are Oscillating, and the Month - Spread is Slightly Strengthening - Recently, the number of warehouse receipts is significantly higher than in the same period in history [164]. Balance Sheet - Recently, there have been many maintenance operations, and production may decrease slightly month - on - month [169]. - The balance sheet shows the total supply, production, imports, total demand, and other data of urea from September 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in production, supply, and consumption [167].